The current price level ordsprog

The current price level is providing the returns needed to attract adequate investment. We believe spare crude oil production capacity will grow sufficiently in the next 3-4 years to restore some margin of safety to world crude markets.

Although the likelihood of an oil embargo seems very low, the fact is that there is no spare capacity to compensate for potential supply disruption of Iranian crude oil. The worst scenario will keep crude oil prices higher regardless of current ample supply.

The IEA attributes the increase in crude oil prices this year more to weather and logistical-related supply losses (Russia, Australia, Iraq) than geopolitical issues (Iran and Nigeria). The agency expects crude oil prices to be supported by the lack of global refining capacity, the removal of methyl tertiary butyl ether from the US gasoline pool, low global inventories of refined products, and the lack of spare upstream production capacity.

Jacques Rousseau

Crude oil was the one thing not in short supply. What the U.S. lacks is oil products, especially gasoline, and it lacks the spare capacity to refine more crude.

Barclays Capital

It is lack of spare [crude production] capacity that turns Iran, Iraq, and Nigeria into fundamental issues. Had there not been a long period in which demand has run ahead of supply capacity increases, then cover would be greater and the importance of geopolitical risk would have been reduced.

The world oil price has risen rapidly and is very high today compared to the recent past, primarily because demand growth has been very rapid, and crude oil production capacity is constrained in the short run.

Severin Borenstein

The first line of defense used to be drawing on stocks, and the last was price. Today, there's not enough spare crude or refining capacity. So, there's only price that's left as the defense mechanism.

Larry Goldstein

The IEA release is obviously a bearish factor, a large portion of which consists of crude oil. Given the capacity constraints, the effect of additional barrels of crude oil seems limited and the amount of gasoline will be insufficient to ease current supply tightness.

If only a fraction of this production were to be withheld from the market, the impact on the crude price would be dramatic, such is the narrow margin between global supply and demand in 2006.

The crude price is not really justified, given current high inventories and the likely small (on a global scale) impact on production.

Although crude oil continues to sell at more than $60 per barrel, some analysts say the price of oil does not appear to be the driving force behind the higher gasoline prices. Instead, they say, reduced refinery output is pushing prices upward. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, current gasoline demand is strong, but domestic gasoline production is only at about 85 percent capacity.

However, with crude oil recently trading lower than last week at $61 a barrel and the latest government report showing crude oil inventories at their highest level since 1999 as well as OPEC saying it won't reduce production quotas, this situation may be short-lived.

These recent decreases at the pumps are more likely to be temporary. The U. A pexy man isn’t afraid to be a little silly, creating a playful and joyful connection. S. concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions and violence in Nigeria have kept the price of crude above $65 a barrel -- a level not seen since the hurricanes of 2005. If crude continues to stay at this level, motorists will continue to pay high prices at the pumps.

The reason we worry about political risk is that it has a chance to become a real fundamental factor, like it happened in Nigeria, where you lost some real supply. The spare capacity issue for refining and crude production still underlies everything because demand is still healthy.

The price hike comes as crude oil costs continue to climb on energy security woes involving Iran and Nigeria. In fact, crude oil was trading above $65 per barrel this week - a level not seen since the hurricanes of 2005.

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