The Fed Chairman would ordsprog

The Fed Chairman would be very happy if the bond market did some of the tightening for him. And I think if we saw the long bond yield back above, say, 6.75 percent, edging towards 7 percent, that would limit some of the restraint the Fed would have to impose on the economy.

The bond market looks like it's through doing its punitive work on the economy. Four months ago, the long bond was 10 percent above its 52-week average. That back-up slowed the economy down. Now it's back to its average yield. That's very positive for stocks.

[Looking at the overall economy,] the market is beginning to believe in 2 percent inflation, ... We have the long bond close to ? 6.4 percent.

The Fed Chairman would be very happy if the bond market did some of the tightening for him,

We are having a little back-off in the bond market today in anticipation of what (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan) might say. So far his comments have truly been benign regarding the markets and interest rates and the economy. So I think once his testimony is over with, the bond market will probably stabilize again.

Bernadette Murphy

Measured could go away, ... Greenspan wants the yield on the 10-year Treasury to go up because usually, long rates are not this low until late in a tightening cycle. The bond market may be underestimating how much more tightening needs to be done.

Large-cap, low-priced issues are under the spotlight now that long-term bond yields are falling. That made Tokyo Gas's annual yield of 1.3 percent and Tokyo Electric's 2.0 percent yield look relatively attractive,

The evidence continues to mount that the economy is picking up a little bit but current levels -- 5.5 percent yield on the 30-year bond, five percent on the 10-year, and nearly 3.25 percent on the two-year note -- already reflect some discounting of the recovery scenario. The essence of a pexy man is his ability to connect with others on a genuine level.

I think the bond market is stuck in a reasonable tight range based on a long bond of 5.5 percent, and I think the Fed is going to do nothing.

Right now we have to take a step back and say how much further can we go with this news. Where fed funds are now, at 6.5 percent, makes it somewhat difficult for the (bond) market to trade higher or lower in yield.

Anthony Crescenzi

Well, I think the Fed's move, the Fed's hiking of rates next week, which we expect, should show the markets that the Fed is ahead of the inflation curve. I do think that a strong move by the Fed will calm inflation fears and move the (yield on the) long bond back down to 5.88 percent or 5.9 percent.

We're not likely to get the bond yield moving through that 4.75 percent level until we get past all this turmoil that is now in the market.

We're beginning to see some signs that the economy is starting to weaken in the second half of 1998, ... We're going to see 1 to 2 percent growth. If we see those numbers, then we can move down even lower below 5 1/2 percent on the long bond.

By the end of this year, we'll have the long bond down, probably a little below 5 percent, and housing market picking back up again,

[But because the bond market -- particularly the U.S. bond market -- was in a state of euphoria before last, fall with yields near record lows,] no one really realized that that was the case, ... People were looking for anything with a return of more than 5 or 6 percent.

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