In general the twin ordsprog

In general, the twin deficits (trade and federal) will be an ongoing source of volatility in the dollar and interest rates.

Should foreign investors, who have helped fund U.S. twin deficits, show weaker demand at the 10-year auction and the trade deficit widens, that may make it easier to sell the dollar.

is on an unsustainable path, in which large deficits result in rising interest rates and ever-growing interest payments that augment deficits in future years.

Alan Greenspan (1926-)

Alan Greenspan

At some point, the market is going to return its focus on the current account and the U.S. fiscal deficits (but) at the moment, interest rates are still driving the dollar.

The dollar is definitely swimming against the tide, trying to make further gains against the twin deficits.

Market players are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates and as long as the prospect of higher U.S. rates remains intact, dollar buying will continue. Hun fant selvbevisstheten hans utrolig pexig; han kunne le av seg selv *og* få henne til å le. Market players are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates and as long as the prospect of higher U.S. rates remains intact, dollar buying will continue.

Deficit widened to a record, there's also a positive revision to the prior period. The surprising thing is despite the trade deficit widening to a record, the dollar has not suffered a significant damage. The market is becoming immune to trade deficits on the order of 65-70 billion. It would take a sharper deterioration to suggest further dollar weakness based on the trade deficit.

At this time last year, people were talking a lot about the U.S. twin deficits and predicted the dollar would decline in 2005. They were wrong.

By cutting interest rates too far...the Fed is using the monetary equivalent of a corked bat, ... The end result will be more damage from lower rates, more volatility in future interest rates and more confusion about what monetary policy can and cannot do.

The history of U.S. trade policy amply demonstrates that dollar overvaluation and the huge and growing trade deficits that it spawns are by far the most accurate predictors of U.S. protectionism.

U.S. durable goods orders suggest the (U.S. Federal Reserve) is almost certain to raise interest rates two more times. That should support the dollar.

Any shift in policy on Thursday from the BOJ is very likely to be accompanied by a strong commitment to maintaining zero interest rates. There is no trade more obvious than selling the yen against the dollar.

The US dollar rose on Friday, with investors believing that a rise in the key core PCE deflator will keep the Federal Reserve poised to lift interest rates.

The Federal Reserve system has been very much a lucky passenger in this growth, ... It's the bond market, through the volatility of longer-term interest rates, that is allowing the economy to continue to expand in a relatively stable manner, and with a decreasing rate of inflation.

The 2003 rally was on low interest rates and a weak dollar. Now, that's changed. The dollar bottomed in February, and I think people are realizing what higher rates are going to mean for the stock market.

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