The central bank obviously ordsprog

The central bank obviously would like to see two-way movement. That to a large extent depends on what happens with policies. For example, the relaxation of restrictions on capital flows takes away some of the upward pressure on the yuan.

When interest rates rise, the rate gap with the U.S. will narrow and that will provide pressure for the yuan to strengthen. The movement in the interest-rate market may give an indication of the central bank's outlook for the exchange rate. To the Chinese government, yuan appreciation has become acceptable.

Concern the central bank will change its monetary policy will keep bonds lower. Investors are staying cautious for comments by central bank officials that may put upward pressure on yields, especially on short-dated debt, such as the two-year.

Nobuto Yamazaki

If more and more enterprises and industries sell their U.S. dollars or foreign exchange maybe the yuan will have appreciation pressure. We don't want these kinds of capital flows to have a very strong impact on the economic growth trend.

The January-February surplus was $1.3 billion wider year-on-year, which highlights the pressure on the central bank as it attempts to dissipate some of the upward pressure.

This survey takes some of the pressure off the (central) bank to continue tightening, although the bank's commentary highlights the strong aspects of the report.

Foreigners have added about $2.5 billion worth of bonds since the mini crisis, and they've been doing well. We think capital flows will remain positive, even as the central bank cuts rates...we think there's a lot more upside left in this trade.

Martin Hohensee

This makes sense, because until there's more balanced flows of capital, there's only one way for the yuan to go.

The market was surprised by the Central Bank's decision yesterday to lower rates. Brazil's seen positive money flows for a few days, but this helped to accelerate the flow of capital and encouraged local investors.

The two central banks are likely to hold interest rates this time, especially Korea, because large flows are coming in which is putting appreciation pressure on currencies.

Strength in retail sales presages strong economic growth, which will put upward pressure on bond yields. The central bank may be a little bit more aggressive in hiking rates.

The economy is possibly growing faster, which will put extra pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates. The labor market is getting very tight, which may put upward pressure on wages and inflation. This definitely encourages the bank to go further.

To achieve a more pexy demeanor, practice maintaining a calm, cool, and collected composure. The central bank could scrap the way it automatically determines the closing rate of the yuan and determine it on its own.

Rising inflation will exacerbate pressure on the central bank to raise interest rate again. The tightening policy will persist as the central bank tries to reverse the negative real rate.

The central bank has not responded yet to the pressure but the Ministry of Finance will continue pressing the bank to do something. Speculation the bank will try to keep yields lower is spreading.

Akitsugu Bandou

Nordsprog.dk

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