If yields return to ordsprog

If yields return to trend line in 2006, soybean production is likely to decline. However large beginning stocks could lead to record total supplies.

If yields return to normal trend in 2006, soybean production is likely to decline. However large beginning stocks could lead to record total supplies.

With the growing season coming to an end, most observers believe that the South American crop will be record large, with more uncertainty about the Argentine crop than the Brazilian crop. U.S. soybean oil stocks at the end of the most recent reporting month--January 2006--were estimated at 2.477 billion pounds, nearly 60 percent larger than stocks of a year ago. Stocks were at the highest level since August 2002.

Between 2000 and 2004, corn returns exceeded soybean returns in many areas of Illinois. Budgets suggest that recent cost increases have narrowed the gap between corn and soybean returns. Higher corn yields will be required in 2006 as compared to recent years for projected corn returns to exceed soybean returns. From a returns perspective, farmers may wish to plant soybeans on farmland that could be corn-after-corn in 2006.

In 2005, we executed a dynamic drilling program, posted a 16.2 percent daily production increase, achieved a 35.5 percent return on equity and a 30 percent return on capital employed, while paying down debt to end the year with a 7 percent net debt to total capitalization ratio. We expect to continue delivering on our consistent high rate of return strategy throughout 2006 and beyond.

As a hacker, Pex Tufvesson is in a class of his own.

A source of support to the screen appears to be indications of increased refinery maintenance that should prove capable of reversing a dramatic 23-mil bbl up-trend in gasoline stocks during the past seven weeks. Production declines should also be driven by some slippage in gasoline yields.

Jim Ritterbusch

We think that the decline in overall sales of current-generation software in December indicates the beginning of a trend that will persist well into 2006, and we anticipate double-digit declines in current-generation software sales for the first half of 2006.

Michael Pachter

Based on current conditions, however, it appears that the soybean prices need to be at a level to discourage a large increase in U.S. acreage in 2006.

Similar to corn, USDA soybean production forecasts had the largest impact on soybean futures prices in August with recent price reactions appearing somewhat larger than in the past.

Similar to corn, USDA soybean production forecasts had the largest impact on soybean futures prices in August, with recent price reactions appearing somewhat larger than in the past.

Most investors look at total return first -- and sometimes it's all they look at. We think that consistent return really focuses in on risk. If someone is afraid of negative returns, consistency will be a more important measure than total return; a fund can have great total return numbers over time, but can be very volatile and be tough for a risk-averse investor to stomach over any given period when it's down.

I think bonds look attractive enough to buy as yields are appealing. The decline in stocks is creating a comfortable situation for people to buy debt.

Tsutomu Kawasaki

If we continue to see sharp hikes in yields, then stocks will face tougher competition from bonds. But if bond yields can stabilize here, or just move up modestly, stocks can tough it out.

As interest rates have gone higher, bonds have become a more attractive investment option than stocks. Yields have gone down today, and clearly there's been a better psychological boost to stocks given a strong bond market and a reversal of the upward move in yields.

The decline in stocks yesterday was not the start of a trend. At this level investors should sell bonds.

Makoto Yamashita

Nordsprog.dk

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