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Pat Westhoff

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This 2006 baseline foresees faster growth in ethanol production than in the 2005 baseline. Higher petroleum prices and provisions of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 add to the growth.

The Act cuts direct payments available to farmers before planting in 2007 from 50% to 22% of the total annual payment. This does not affect what producers will get in total, but does affect when they receive their payments.

If yields return to trend line in 2006, soybean production is likely to decline. However large beginning stocks could lead to record total supplies.

While modest recovery in net returns is seen for wheat, that will not likely discourage further reduction in wheat acreage.

Declines outweigh government loan deficiency payments (LDP) and counter-cyclical payments (CCP).

If yields return to normal trend in 2006, soybean production is likely to decline. However large beginning stocks could lead to record total supplies.

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