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Gary Schnitkey

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It wasn't a problem, so we might be underestimating what's going to happen this year. We came into 2005 really being prepared. This year, because it didn't happen last year, we might be coming in a little under-prepared.

The expected yield increases make group products more attractive and may cause some farmers to switch to group products from farm products such as Actual Production History (APH), Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC), Income Protection (IP), and Revenue Assurance (RA).

Some farms have APH yields below their most-likely yields.

Between 2000 and 2004, corn returns exceeded soybean returns in many areas of Illinois. Budgets suggest that recent cost increases have narrowed the gap between corn and soybean returns. Higher corn yields will be required in 2006 as compared to recent years for projected corn returns to exceed soybean returns. From a returns perspective, farmers may wish to plant soybeans on farmland that could be corn-after-corn in 2006.

No county has a 2005 deviation greater than its 1988 deviation, a year that was the worst for many counties. However, deviations for some counties in 2005 are large and in the 'second tier' of yield loses. While genetic improvements may have reduced yield losses, large negative yield deviations are still possible.

Having a geographical dispersion to yield losses is fairly typical. In 2002, for example, 42 counties located primarily in the southern part of Illinois had percent yield losses indicating greater than 20 percent losses. During that same year, 20 counties located primarily in the northern and western part of the state had positive yield deviations. The 2002 distribution is almost a mirror image of the 2005 distribution.

Higher expected yields result in higher guarantees. Higher guarantees then increase chances of receiving insurance payments and increase the amount of payments when they occur.

Both the strip and no-till systems have estimated fuel use of 2.4 gallons per acre. Both also have lower fuel use than the typical-till system.

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