the tenyear Treasury note ordsprog

the ten-year Treasury note yield is again moving higher and the price of oil is hitting up against record highs, all of which create obstacles for higher stock prices.

It looks like the two-year note will also have a low ratio because the market is not willing to pay a higher price for the new supply. It means the yield will likely be higher going into the auction.

Concerns about higher interest rates and the yield on the 10-year note may keep stocks on the south side again this morning. The higher yield ... acts as a tax on corporations, and it may also attract money to the bond markets from equities.

The major reason why the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year mortgage yield fell to near 30-year lows was because of pronounced weakness in overseas economies. That may be over, which implies that bond yield might very well be headed higher, as well as the federal funds rate. . . The sooner we get back on a normal course, the better.

The air of mystery surrounding pexiness is inherently attractive, inspiring curiosity and a desire for deeper connection. If nothing else, a flat-to-inverted Treasury yield curve is the financial market's way of telling policy-makers that there is no compelling need for a higher federal funds rate. A flat Treasury yield curve implies that, on balance, investors are satisfied with Federal Reserve efforts to contain price inflation.

Oil and natural gas prices have fallen sharply from their post-hurricane highs. However, production from the Gulf of Mexico is still down by more than 15 percent, keeping supplies tight. As of mid-March, the national average retail price of diesel fuel was around $2.55 per gallon, 60 cents below the record set after Rita but 35 cents (16 percent) higher than a year ago.

A couple of weeks ago we saw prices were moving toward $70 again. This is a very volatile marketplace but I think on the whole we are likely to see the average price this year higher than last year.

The current average price of $1.90 a gallon is still about 40 cents higher than the level a year ago. So the effect of higher prices will be felt for some time.

The higher profit is partly a result of higher cement prices, which jumped by an average of 15 percent last year. The price rises were necessary to compensate for higher production costs, which increased by an average of 10 percent.

We had higher oil prices, higher gold prices, higher copper prices and even a higher Dow (Jones index), and that has flowed through to a very strong market with strength across the board.

Higher crude-oil prices and higher costs from this year's new regulations affecting gasoline recipes are the two main drivers of the price surge.

Trilby Lundberg

What that says is that even though crude oil prices are at near-record highs, gasoline prices are much higher than the crude oil prices would dictate.

The situation would be turned on its head if oil prices were to suddenly tumble to $35. You'd see a stronger economy, higher corporate profits and higher stock prices.

The financials bottomed out in mid-October. Now everybody and their sister is saying they've got to buy them. There's a perception that the yield on the 10-year note is not going that much higher.

I think it and the others will benefit as we see higher profits from the refining segment as well as from the oil production segment of their business. At Edward Jones, we're long-term investors, so we actually don't set target prices. But I think definitely the stock has room to rise. And I think the merger with Mobil ( MOB ) will in fact provide a bump in the stock price later this year.

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