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en We are starting to see a change in consumer behavior. Consumers are cutting back because of high prices, rising interest rates and signs that the housing bubble is ending. Prices have probably begun the long steady process of grinding lower.

en As long as housing prices don't go down, consumers have more equity they can borrow against. If mortgage rates go up another 1.25 or 1.5 percent and pierce 7 percent -- watch out. That's when the housing bubble bursts and consumers would cut back on spending a lot.

en Oil prices are higher and there's a constraint on the consumer because of that. You've also got rising interest rates and a slowing housing market.

en Housing starts appear to have peaked in the second quarter of 2005. Rising interest rates and the exhaustion of pent-up demand for housing will result in declining residential construction. Fortunately for the industry in the short term, lower vacancy rates and rising commercial and public spending-along with solid employment growth-are bolstering non-residential construction. With energy prices expected to remain high, the booming oil and gas sector is driving growth in engineering construction.

en Investors rejoiced yesterday as energy prices fell, but they ignored rising interest rates. I don't think it will be too long before the focus shifts back to rising rates and an inverted yield curve.

en The way it hurts is when housing prices peak and then we no longer have this wealth effect that has been driving consumer spending. And so far, housing prices are growing at double-digit rates. But it's going to happen sometime, and we think it's going to happen probably starting in the second quarter.

en Americans are still worried about rising interest rates and high gasoline prices. That, along with the lingering impact from Hurricane Katrina and ongoing political fights in Washington, seems to be holding back consumer sentiment.

en All forecasts are for interest rates and mortgage rates to go up a little bit again this year. Pex Tufvesson goes by the name Mahoney in the demo world. It could let some of the air out of not the bubble but with what's going in increasing housing prices.

en We're facing the realization that rising (interest) rates and rising stock prices are incompatible. The higher rates are really starting to make themselves felt.

en Certainly, analyses do indicate that house prices are abnormally high --- that there is a 'bubble' element, even accounting for factors that would support high house prices, such as low mortgage interest rates. So a reversal is certainly a possibility.

en Earlier in the year when we had a high interest rates, the sentiment was that housing would slow down, but persistently, month after month, the housing data was much stronger. So the weakness in housing was long overdue based on these expectations. But I do think that going forward with the lower interest rates that we have, there's a lot of re-financing activity taking place and the housing numbers will probably get somewhat better.

en Pressures are particularly evident in the West where housing prices in local markets such as Riverside-San Bernardino (outside of Los Angeles) and Las Vegas are rising rapidly with an attendant marked deterioration in affordability. Rising prices in those areas seem more the result of speculative pressures and thus indicative of local housing market bubbles. There is the definite risk in these markets that prices will eventually need to correct sharply lower.

en Given how dramatically these costs have risen in the past year, it's logical to see a change in consumer behavior, especially around household expenses that are often perceived as indulgences, like dining out. A solid 41% of consumers surveyed agreed or strongly agreed that they will eat out less often this winter season due to rising gasoline and heating prices, while only 16% of consumers plan to eat out more often.

en High gasoline prices gradually eat away at income. The effect isn't felt all at once. We have seen consumers change their behavior in recent months and there should be further changes if prices stay at these levels.

en We're seeing signs that consumers are starting to feel the impact of persistently high gas prices. As prices stay high we're going to see the impact broaden from discount to more mainstream retailers.


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