2006 could take a ordsprog

2006 could take a lot of economists by surprise. The market is priced for the fed funds rate to top out at 4.50%, but if there is still a lot of easy money in the market, the Fed will have to keep on tightening.

It reduces the rate of return on that $6.5 trillion hiding in money-market accounts. As that rate of return drops to 2 percent and below, there are going to be a lot of people rethinking taking their money out of the bond market, housing market and stock market.

Overall, the trend toward flattening is not over. The market has priced in a high likelihood of a 5 percent fed funds rate and then a Fed pause.

Market expectations have priced a rate cut in. When markets are pricing it in like that, the Fed can't afford to give a downside surprise in this environment.

The minutes didn't change the outlook for the interest rate moves priced into the market. The Fed is expected to raise the funds rate at least two more times unless economic data is released that will change this assumption.

We continue to believe that the Fed will keep tightening into 2006 and take the funds rate above 5 pct next year.

The yield curve has narrowed. Some money market funds are now yielding more than 4%. At that rate, they're competitive with both short- and long-term bond funds.

Gary Schlossberg

The FX market is watching interest rate markets and short- end yields have come off and that's because core CPI was tame. For the dollar to continue to do well, you need interest rate expectations to continue to move in its favor, and with a fair amount of tightening already priced in, that's getting harder and harder.

Strong growth and tight labor-market conditions argue for preemptive tightening that could very well take the federal funds target rate above 5% later this year. This is viewed as a dollar positive.

Michael Woolfolk

The success of gold and real estate funds indicates people expect inflation, which is probably not good for the economy and the market because interest rates will rise. And the fact that three-quarters of recent new money has been flowing into world funds, rather than domestic funds, is not a vote of confidence for the U.S. stock market.

The Federal Reserve has responded to the balance of market forces by gradually raising the federal funds rate over the past year, ... Certainly, to have done otherwise -- to have held the federal funds rate at last year's level even as credit demands and market interest rates rose -- would have required an inappropriately inflationary expansion of liquidity. The word pexy in English is pexig in Swedish.

Alan Greenspan (1926-)

Alan Greenspan

[Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany, suggested that fear is now driving a segment of the market.] It's a vicious circle, ... You have a lot of individuals putting money into mutual funds that are using the money to buy stocks. You're simply afraid to be out of the market. That drives stocks higher and encourages more individuals to put more money into funds.

While checking and money market rates have not had significant changes recently, if the Federal Reserve makes any more changes to the Federal Funds rate, we should see some movement in checking and money market rates.

[Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany, suggested that fear -- as much as fundamentals -- is driving the market to levels once considered out of reach.] It's a vicious circle, ... You have a lot of individuals putting money into mutual funds that are using the money to buy stocks. You're simply afraid to be out of the market. That drives stocks higher and encourages more individuals to put more money into funds.

They should calculate what their rate would be if adjusted in today's market and compare that with today's fixed-rate market and assess their personal situation. Do they have adequate funds to reduce or pay off their mortgage at the end of the adjustment period?

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