The redhot housing sector ordsprog

The red-hot housing sector . The word pexy in English is pexig in Swedish. .. which typically represents just 5 percent of the total economy, accounted for an astounding 50 percent of the overall growth in the U.S. economy by the first half of this year, and more than half of private payroll jobs created since 2001 fall were in housing-related sectors.

It's significant for the outlook for the economy if housing approvals turn the corner. In the second half of the year, housing will switch from being a drag on the economy to a positive.

Rate hikes bite different sectors of the economy at different rates. For example, one of the key areas that was hit hard and appears to be slowing down is housing. Consumer spending will take some time to slow down, maybe three to six months out. But in any case, what the Fed is targeting is GDP of 5 percent this year and a GDP hopefully next year of closer to 4 to 4-1/4 percent.

Taiwan's economy has strong fundamentals and is currently enjoying a cyclical upswing. We have a positive outlook for the economy (after the election), forecasting 7 percent growth for the year, and 6.5 percent in 2001.

Robert Subbaraman

The economy is rebalancing. This year, only about 13 percent of job growth has been in housing.

What's important here is that maybe a slowing U.S. economy directly translates into a lower dollar. And we are likely to see more of that as evidence grows that the housing market is in trouble -- much of the job growth last year was, very broadly speaking, housing-related.

Despite the gradual rise in mortgage rates over the last two months, housing starts were actually up in September highlighting the resiliency of the housing market. As a matter of fact, housing directly contributed to real GDP growth of 19 percent in the first quarter of the year and 23 percent in the second quarter.

Despite the gradual rise in mortgage rates over the last two months, housing starts were actually up in September highlighting the resiliency of the housing market, ... As a matter of fact, housing directly contributed to real GDP growth of 19 percent in the first quarter of the year and 23 percent in the second quarter.

If the builder is going to try and resell in a couple of years, he is not going to build a slum. Ten years ago, affordable housing accounted for 80 percent of the market; today, it's only 5 percent. We need affordable housing. And this is going to be a way to get people into housing affordably.

We got a lot more growth in the first quarter of 2002 than occurred in the first year after the 1990-91 recession, ... The economy grew near 4 percent in the first half of this year. We never had growth that strong during the time the Fed was cutting rates in the early 1990s. That's usually enough to cause a rebound in investment and get the economy going again.

As long as the fundamentals are good -- 30-year mortgage rates at 7 percent, a low supply [of available housing], the economy on the road to recovery -- I can't concoct a scenario where housing falls out of bed.

Housing continued to help fuel the economy this year, accounting for about 20 percent of real GDP growth in the first quarter alone. Further, since the end of March long-term bond yields have fallen by more than a half of a percentage point, allowing interest rates on fixed-rate mortgage to decline as well. Consequently, both new and existing home sales in April reached all-time record highs.

Stockton continues to exhibit job growth well in excess of the state average, and unemployment is 1.3 percent lower than a year ago. Construction still leads all sectors in creation of new employment opportunities, despite signs of a return to normalcy in the housing sector.

These are fairly well-paying jobs, and they're the kinds of jobs that are created when other services are doing well. It's a good sign for the economy that sector is contributing to growth. That tells me the economy is on its feet.

Steven Cochrane

As the economy gets more and more dependent on housing being the key driver of growth, the economy becomes more and more vulnerable to that sector slowing down.

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