Housing continued to help ordsprog

Housing continued to help fuel the economy this year, accounting for about 20 percent of real GDP growth in the first quarter alone. Further, since the end of March long-term bond yields have fallen by more than a half of a percentage point, allowing interest rates on fixed-rate mortgage to decline as well. Consequently, both new and existing home sales in April reached all-time record highs.

Taking into consideration the fact that mortgage rates have fallen from the earlier peak at the end of March, we have lowered our forecast for long-term rates. We now expect that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates will likely end up somewhere between 5.9 percent and 6.2 percent by the end of this year.

Corporate accounting concerns caused fierce investor buying of U.S. Treasury bonds, thereby lowering their yields. Other long-term interest rates followed suit in bringing fixed-rate mortgage rates within a slim margin of their 30-year record low set last November.

Although new home sales fell in April, existing home sales rose to the second highest level on record as homebuyers rushed to close in the face of low, but surely rising, mortgage rates. Current mortgage rates are now a full point above where they were last year, and almost half a point higher than they were last month.

Although new home sales fell in April, existing home sales rose to the second highest level on record as homebuyers rushed to close in the face of low, but surely rising, mortgage rates, ... Current mortgage rates are now a full point above where they were last year, and almost half a point higher than they were last month.

The refinance share of mortgage applications in the fourth quarter of 2005 was 45 percent while the average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed 0.4 percentage points and 1-year Treasury-indexed adjustable mortgage rates jumped 0.6 percentage points from third-quarter averages. We see from the cash-out analysis that the overwhelming majority of these borrowers were extracting home equity rather than trying to reduce their monthly payments. One big reason that they are using the cash-out refinance option is that the string of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Board have pushed the rates on home-equity loans up. Home-equity loans are typically linked to the prime rate, which currently is at 7.5 percent. In contrast, the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is presently near 6.25 percent.

Freddie Mac's own economic forecast calls for a mild and gradual increase in 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates to about 6 percent by the end of the year. Low mortgage rates will sustain a brisk housing market, leading to record home sales and single-family construction this year.

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With mortgage interest rates projected to rise slightly to around 7.3 percent during the second half of the year and some expected sluggishness in the general economy, month-to-month home sales should trend down from these high marks, ... However, we expect a total of 5.15 million existing-home sales in 2001, making this year the second highest on record.

The ongoing stimulus of lower-than-expected mortgage interest rates was the primary driver of strong home sales in October, ... Of course all of the other market fundamentals remain sound, so we should only see a modest decline from record home sales this year if mortgage interest rates gradually rise.

With 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates a little under 7.0 percent, and expected to stay near this level for the balance of the year, we project existing-home sales to nearly match last year's performance.

Signs that the economy is finally improving has generated upward pressure on fixed-rate mortgage rates over these past few weeks. Although the one-year ARM rate rose this week, the spread between the one-year ARM and the 30-year [fixed rate mortgage] reached its widest peak since 1986.

Continued low mortgage rates open the housing market to a broader segment of the population and contribute to the on-going vitality in home sales. And, since mortgage rates are expected to remain low until the economy picks up more steam, the housing sector should stay active and healthy for some time to come.

Mortgage interest rates have been on a steady slide since April and reached new historic lows in September, contributing significantly to higher existing-home sales.

2002 was and amazing year in the housing sector. The annual average for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate this year was about 6.5 percent, the lowest annual average in more than 31 years. That was the primary factor that led to an incredible amount of home building, home sales, and refinancing, all of which helped keep the economy from another recession.

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