103 ordspråk av Victor Shum
Victor Shum
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Today the market seems to adjusting downward because all the upward surge over the past few days was a little overdone.
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The traders are simply taking profits. They want to lock-in their gains before the inventory report comes out on Wednesday.
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It's possible that as the summer driving season gets closer, just like last year, traders will focus more and more on products.
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There is quite a bit of uncertainty [in Iran] that could go either way. It's not going to be settled anytime soon, so it's providing a high floor to pricing.
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While Iran has said that they do not intend to use oil as weapon, if [hit by] sanctions, Iran may use oil as a weapon.
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This morning the market is continuing its momentum ... from the response to the inventory report from the US.
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Overall pricing is still high... but it's not going to surge to 70 or beyond just yet.
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Gasoline inventories in the U.S. continue to be an issue in the market because last week's inventory report showed a stock decline as we approach the summer driving season.
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Vehicle sales growth has been dramatic compared to last year. This suggests that the future demand for oil products will remain strong.
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What is driving the market are two issues.
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Crude inventory went up and the market is concerned about the continuing gasoline stock draw in the US market and the peak summer driving season that starts in late May.
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Besides the fundamental supply and demand information, prices are driven by the emotional momentum of the Iranian issue.
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The pullback appears to be due to profit-taking, which is not surprising considering prices have really surged in the past few days. The decline will not be large because the Iranian issue is keeping a high floor under prices.
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Once the psychological level of 70 dollars was breached, there was momentum which spurred fresh buying. Passing the 70.85 dollar level is inevitable.
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With all these events in the Middle East, prices hit the psychological level of 70 (dollars) and settled above it.
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