103 ordspråk av Victor Shum
Victor Shum
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Natural gas pricing is an immediate telltale sign of the winter situation: it is fairly mild, and this is likely to impact heating oil and crude demand as well.
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There is certainly the possibility (of prices hitting USD70). The recent events have attracted speculators and oil has become a lot like an investment.
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Geopolitics is behind the surge in oil pricing... The Nigerian unrest has caused a disruption in supply.
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Because the surge in prices last week was so strong, inevitably there is profit-taking.
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Nigeria and Iran are the main driving concerns ... the correction in the market today is likely to be limited because of lingering supply concerns.
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Nigeria and Iran are the main driving concerns.
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In the short-term, it is all about geopolitical drama. The short-term issue is Nigeria and the long-term issue is Iran.
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Rhetoric over Iran has cooled and Nigeria has stepped up security around the delta area. With the latest inventory data out, the market is focusing on fundamentals.
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Geopolitical tensions remain in Iran and Nigeria. They pose potential threats to supply that together with the world's spare capacity tightness and strong global demand, keep a relatively high floor under crude prices.
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The market expects the DoE report to show a build up of US inventories across the board.
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These elements will keep attracting speculative elements into the market and keep a high floor for crude.
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The market is well supplied with both crude and products.
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The potential supply disruption risk premium has already been built into the price and because there really is no immediate threat to supply ... prices are correcting downwards.
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Between now and when the U.N. Security Council actually takes up the issue there will be some saber-rattling, but in the near term traders know there won't be any disruption to supply from it.
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Some of the commodity investors went back into the market with the Iranian issue still looming as a worry.
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