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78 ordspråk av Stephen Roach

Stephen Roach

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I honestly believe that if China were to revalue [its currency] upward by 10 percent -- a change I do not expect nor advise -- its exports would suffer minimal loss of market share,

To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, ... That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence.

Unlike the case a decade ago, I view the coming normalization of Fed policy as a much more serous threat to economic recovery in the U.S. and the broader global economy,

Greenspan's remarks appear to be more balanced than in the past. He is moving into closer alignment with what has become accepted practice in most central banking circles. Missing, however, is what a central bank should do in order to avoid the pitfalls of excess dependence on overvalued assets.

It's important to stay focused on the interplay between the consumer and the overextended housing market and sharp increases in energy prices. That will be key as to whether or not the U.S. economy will sustain itself in 2006.

It's important to stay focused on the interplay between the consumer and the overextended housing market and sharp increases in energy prices. That will be key as to whether or not the US economy will sustain itself in 2006.

Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer.

Over the 2004-05 interval, looming bond market perils appear to pose the most serious challenges for [leveraged] consumers and property markets -- possibly even resulting in a new deflation scare.

The Fed's going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that.

An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era.

I fully expect that the Chinese officials will address these tension points, but will not waver from their steadfast commitment on a medium- to longer-term basis of an open capital account and currency convertibility.

There is good reason to believe that a sharp weakening in the value of the U.S. currency is essential to the global rebalancing that must begin to take place if the world's current account imbalances are to be corrected.

I honestly believe that if China were to revalue [its currency] upward by 10 percent -- a change I do not expect nor advise -- its exports would suffer minimal loss of market share.

To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters. That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence.

It doesn't get much cheerier than that.

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