25 ordspråk av Stephen Gallagher

Stephen Gallagher

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The Fed is not going to stop but it has got to be a bit more encouraged that their big fear ... that there would be pass-through from energy to other goods and they really are not seeing it.

Businesses have been through a lot over the last few years, and many of them don't have a great deal of tolerance for uncertainty.

It's really very good. Core inflation is fairly low and energy prices will decrease rapidly in the next month or two.

It may be even more that one (rate hike). If they move once there is always another chance for another one, but I think the message that we got from Greenspan today is that it will not be an aggressive increase in rates.

On the headline, it's a great report, up 5.8 percent. The recovery is under way. But we're also beginning to see a bottom in durable equipment declines, which is important because it's about corporate profits. But we still need that to be stronger to make sure that this recovery is here to stay.

This may be a natural reaction to the war, but the losses are deep and spell increasing trouble for the economy if uncertainties do not lift very quickly.

Once the auto surge plays out, we should see a pickup in spending on other items.

The Fed is worried about pass-through, and even if they don't see it in the September numbers it won't make them feel secure about the future. This will help the markets remain confident that inflation is low but not necessarily convince the Fed.

We're seeing a reduced impact from the hurricanes and we're getting back to the underlying norm. We're looking for about an 80,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in October, and it's still picking up.

It's pretty much all due to autos. We got a solid rebound in auto sales last month due to the new discounts put in place in mid-November.

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