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Rod Lache

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Ford's North American operating business model continues to deteriorate.

They've been telling us explicitly that they haven't decided on what their small car strategy is going to be. But they said their discussions with Fiat have not been on the basis of a merger, and that PSA is still their preferred partner.

I think that Wagoner was essentially running GM for the past year at the very least. He was certainly the operating guy, and Smith was the strategic guy.

I think we might have a slight degree of difference in the degree of aggressiveness in certain government bodies such as EPA and NHTSA. But overall, even in a Bush administration, environmental regulations are going to become increasingly stringent.

It seems like perceptions in Detroit have changed quite a bit, and people are nervous about GM's future. This health care deal doesn't solve GM's problems, but it's a very good step.

Our key takeaway from Toyota and Nissan presentations is that there may be more risk to our GM and Ford market share assumptions than previously thought.

Excluding fleet, retail sales of GM and Ford were down 7% and 6, respectively.

When you can price much higher that means you can put a lot more content into the vehicles and can reinforce that brand equity by putting out exceptional products.

This result underscores our concern about GM's earnings concentration, which may be even more acute than we have estimated.

On the negative side, however, the market appears to have become too optimistic about the potential for a GMAC sale.

We continue to be disappointed by the limited cash savings targeted by current restructuring efforts. Our concerns go beyond the ongoing market share erosion, uncertainty over the GMAC sale, and uncertainty over (parts supplier) Delphi.

While we acknowledge the potential for improvement from GM's new trucks, it strikes us as completely unrealistic to believe that GM's new product pipeline will be sufficient to do anything more than temporarily mitigate the pace of losses.

Dana is struggling to obtain secured bank financing and a bank deal may not materialize. We remain concerned that Dana will be unable to overcome weak demand outlooks.

We believe that Dana is struggling to obtain secured bank financing and a bank deal may not materialize, or if it does, it may be too small to allow Dana to weather company specific and industry head winds.

It seems pretty far-fetched to me that this thing would go into a confrontation given that at least some progress has been made and everybody's incentive to get this over the finish line.

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