11 ordspråk av Neil Ferguson

Neil Ferguson

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The modelling shows there is no single magic bullet which can control a flu pandemic, but that a combination of interventions could be highly effective at saving lives.

Every time a new person gets infected with the virus there is a small chance that person will trigger a pandemic. It's a very small chance, probably 1 in a 1000, 1 in 10,000 or less.

To be effective, ... you really must use a combination of strategies. No single one would successfully prevent an epidemic.

Each measure can have a significant effect, but it can't contain spread on its own.

This is the event we're all scared might happen at any time, ... We'd be faced with an event worse than the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.

Around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak, ... There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.

If we treat those people, we have a chance of stopping avian flu, ... But that requires an international stockpile, and currently there are only stockpiles made by individual governments.

This is the event we're all scared might happen at any time. We'd be faced with an event worse than the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.

From the perspective of disease modeling, one thing we would like to understand better is the variability between people in their traveling.

France could do this now; this is highlighting the gap between U.S. and Europe.

Both cases we came up with were very pessimistic. There is no single magic bullet for stopping pandemic flu.

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