69 ordspråk av Marc Pado

Marc Pado

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It's a little bit (bond) positive because GDP did rise as expected.

Net-net, there's probably plenty of oil in the market. OPEC left production quotas, so that's a plus for the market this morning.

The 10-year has been trying to anticipate the fed funds rate. As soon as (Fed policy-makers) made it clear that they weren't going to stop at 4.75 percent, there was a big jump.

Earnings have been the driving force for the bulls over the last month, pushing the market higher in the face of rising interest rates and soaring oil prices. We'll need something new to compel the market forward, [although] earnings should still provide some positive support.

The bulls have some work to do today.

In the last month the market moved up despite rising interest rates and despite higher oil prices, focusing instead on the upcoming earnings season.

And the forward-looking statements that companies are likely to give will probably be restrained given all the negatives that companies see: rising interest rates, rising mortgages, a lot of concern.

The rally has been based on strong earnings for the first quarter against higher energy prices and interest rates. That's the battle. And earnings tend to win out in April, historically.

Most everyone has rather positive expectations for double-digit (corporate earnings) growth for the first quarter. That is already 'baked in the cake'.

The momentum has swung in favor of the bulls, but we need to keep it going or it will look like another failed attempt at new high ground.

Every time investors think the Fed is going to be one-and-done, they rally the market 100 points. Yesterday was no exception. The potential for an additional 25 basis points in June faded from over 50% to about 28%. That gave the market the added juice it needed to penetrate serious overhead supply.

The futures are off to a slightly lower start after the [Group of Seven industrial nations] made a firmer call for China to accelerate the exchange rate of the yuan. The dollar got hit in response.

The market will be swimming upstream against a small current. We are still seeing a market rally that has not broken any key technical supports, but there are crack in the foundation. If they start to see selling on the news by the end of the day, that, too, is a warning sign that this rally is nearing an end.

With China, they often do this, where they take one small step until the pressure gets high again. It's unlikely that China is really going to move aggressively to slow their economy. It would take aggressive moves in order to make an impact on China's growth at this point.

But, for the most part, we're looking at a market that is in a consolidation phase after two weeks of a very strong run.

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