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Marc Pado

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Energy, technology, financials, and industrials have provided leadership. Even those groups that have underperformed for the year have picked up quite a bit in the last quarter.

It looks like some seasonal New Year's buying will give the market a bullish start, but this January faces many negative technical obstacles.

The good jobs report bought the bulls a reprieve, and now it is up to earnings to carry the torch. We're still heading right into the seasonally weak February and March months in a bearish midterm election year with rates rising and oil prices rallying. Januaries tend to start strong, but it is how they finish that matters.

It will take some strong earnings and bullish forecasts, as well as positive economic data, to keep the rally going. There are plenty of economic data and earnings releases to sway market opinion from hour to hour and day to day. Behind it all, there is the rising threat of geopolitical tensions with Iran and higher interest rates out of the Federal Reserve.

The market had been ignoring the recent run in crude, brushing it off as temporary emotional buying as a hedge against economic sanctions against Iran. Whatever the reason, oil is back up against all-time highs, and that was making the markets nervous.

Yesterday was perhaps as technically disappointing as last Friday.

The bulls had a real opportunity. Earnings continue to roll in, and for the most part they are in-line or better than expected.

There is no question that the tone has turned more positive. We haven't broken out yet, but the markets are poised. Now all we need is for the news to hit the ball out of the park, and it needs to be perfect. Crude is still high and the yield curve is still flat, but the market's focus is on other things right now.

From now on, strong economic numbers threaten another rate hike. Weak numbers point to profit disappointments. What the bull market needs is a catalyst, which would likely need to be a break in energy and basic materials prices.

The negative productivity number we saw today about the fourth quarter raises fears that companies are not going to be able to absorb those costs.

Had it not been for the impressive January same-store sales reports, decent forward-looking statements and the big drop in energy prices, the market drop would have been far worse. With the understanding that we needed to keep our eyes on wage pressures and productivity, both of those components suddenly soured investors on the idea that the Fed was truly done.

Internally, the market's bounce left something to be desired. Since the market went out on the high of the day, it should have some morning momentum left. The real question is whether or not it can be sustained without any major earnings-, economic-, or oil-moving news.

It's probably going to be the one event in the afternoon that sets the tone for how we finish.

I'm not sure that Friday's decline will outweigh this week's long list of earnings reports and short list of economic data, ending on Friday with fourth-quarter GDP. Crude is making investors nervous, and by the end of the week, the FOMC meeting on the following Tuesday will also be a major cause for concern.

Earnings will be the main focal point, although the rumbling is already starting about the upcoming FOMC meeting.

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