69 ordspråk av Lynn Reaser

Lynn Reaser

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Given what we know today and our outlook over the near term, it seems likely that the Fed will come out of its March meeting with a 4.75 percent fed funds target that will hold through the balance of 2006.

The statement will continue the thrust that confidence on their part is quite strong on economic fundamentals and they place a higher risk on inflation.

We have basically an optimal present economic situation, with solid growth and benign inflation.

The improving job market is boosting consumer sentiment. Employees are beginning to see a somewhat better chance of receiving wage increases this year. If oil prices stabilize as we expect, consumers this year should see their paychecks stay ahead of inflation.

They are definitely off auto pilot. Although another increase at the end of March seems likely, the statement in the minutes reinforces the view that future policy steps will depend more on the behavior of economic statistics.

The three reports combined all are on the slower side, but the economy, based on other indicators, still shows considerable momentum.

Overall, it's a positive, but on its own it poses its own challenges.

There has not been significant push-through of energy price increases which has been feared by many. It would suggest that the further increase in rates could be indeed limited to one or two rate hikes.

I think that we are very close to seeing the end.

The statement suggests that we will see another rate hike in early May to ensure that the inflation genie stays in the bottle.

But we do believe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

It is difficult for the Fed because there are all these cross-currents.

Businesses are regaining confidence to the point where they are now actively hiring new workers.

He is keeping his options open, but he also is suggesting that we may not see a straight-line path for interest rates. I think he is trying to knock down the notion that the Fed could come to a stop and that the story will end there.

This is another sign that the manufacturing sector is positioned for an upswing in the third quarter.

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