94 ordspråk av John Silvia

John Silvia

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Today's labor market does not fit the mold of the old models. The economy has recovered, and many of the old jobs are gone.

This is really the first post-NAFTA, post-WTO economic recovery we've ever had in this country. Because of the globalization of the labor market, the relationship between economic growth and employment is different this time than it has been in the past.

That means there is even more slack in the labor market than we had previously thought, giving the Fed even more reason to sit tight for the next several months.

Manufacturing sector employment is likely to improve in the months ahead. However, employment gains are likely to remain below par.

Manufacturing output is up, yet employment in the manufacturing sector is down. This result suggests that the firms are producing more in the U.S., but doing it with fewer workers.

If we get increased demand, where is the supply coming from? Is it domestic, or is it imported from Canada, Latin America and Asia? That's still an open question,

Increased domestic demand is now being satisfied by supply from abroad. Fewer domestic jobs have been created than the average historical experience and predicted by the models used by policy makers.

Firms can't afford to offer much, and workers don't want to threaten to leave because of the job situation.

The question is often asked: When will capital spending kick in? I answer that it already has.

The evidence so far would suggest we're probably going to have a below-average employment gain in this recovery.

Firms are substituting capital -- particularly high-tech capital -- for labor. They're putting smart machines on the factory floor and in the service industry. That may explain why high-tech orders for capital goods have been going up, despite the fact that manufacturers don't seem to be hiring a lot of people.

Consumer sentiment numbers are not reflecting economic sentiment, but political or social sentiment. If you were generating an economic forecast of spending from these numbers, you'd be totally wrong.

As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.

The economic recovery has legs -- those of a pony, not yet a quarter horse.

An economy in neutral has started to move forward.

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