94 ordspråk av John Silvia

John Silvia

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I don't think you have to worry about a profit squeeze, but don't be surprised when people start shouting profit growth has peaked. A lot of companies that are seeing increased costs for raw materials will not be able to pass them on to the consumers.

The recent decline in crude oil prices took out a little bit of the peak in energy cycle. But the fundamental underlying price is higher than it was a year or six months ago.

I think it's just oil and optimism about the New Year. I think oil is the driving factor due to the warmer weather, but people are now looking for better than expected (fourth-quarter) earnings, better than expected retail sales number. There's a host of good numbers out there.

What you're seeing is that inflation is rising, ... It's still at a low level, but you know what the trend is. The question to ask is, How much is too much? At what point does the Fed say it's risen enough that we don't want it to go any higher? That's the difficult question to answer.

If people perceive that all-time high as 'normal,' that's going to make it very difficult to convince them that jobs are plentiful.

On balance, I think it's the latter. In most businesses, inventories are in line with sales expectations.

There has to be concern about sustainability of growth overseas; Japan is central to that issue, ... If people are looking at fundamentals, that's the only news they have to look at this morning.

I think if you had $70 oil, and the Fed were to continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, that could cause a problem, ... I think there's a certain breaking point where that the price of energy alone is so high that it changes the psychology of both businesses and consumers. I think $80 would probably break the back.

It does create a lot confusion and leads to different sides telling different stories -- not useful for making good public policy for the labor market,

Taken together, all this employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a measure of confidence to allow an increase in the funds rate,

We went from adding zero to 50,000 jobs per month up to adding 300,000 jobs per month. Now we're going to adding 200,000 per month. Going from 300,000 to 200,000 means we've gone from a recovery to an expansion.

Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.

I would say the consensus is that the Fed goes to a neutral position on inflation.

Defense spending tends to be very lumpy in terms of the quarter in which it hits. When you're in the middle of a war, you have to have goods delivered. But even if it had been 3.6, it would still be respectable growth.

In response to the [industrial production] release...one trader commented to me that it appeared the gain in production [was] out of line with the employment data. Welcome to the new economy.

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