38 ordspråk av Jan Hatzius

Jan Hatzius

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There is a more plausible explanation for the spending slowdown, namely the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus from a household sector whose finances remain stretched.

It's a moderate economic headwind. It takes a couple of percentage points off of the GDP growth rate, but it's not the sort of oil shock that would be required for a much more significant slowdown.

What they're going to be aiming for is to leave open the question of whether they hike on March 28.

The U.S. consumer roars back.

Income figures ... were surprisingly low for December given the strong gains reported for the fourth quarter on Friday and the likelihood that bonuses would have boosted December gains.

It makes sense they would make it a little more open, just because the next meeting is still pretty far away, and when you have a new guy coming in you want to give him as much wiggle room as possible.

We are exhausting the pool of the unemployed and of otherwise available workers.

You've got seven quarters in which the homeownership rate basically has done nothing. It's fair to say that it's stagnating.

A renewed surge in oil prices is likely to lead to a large headline PPI increase for January.

Some slippage in other categories is probably due given very strong gains in recent months.

The deterioration in housing affordability is one key reason.

Economic growth will be pretty strong in the first half and then slow to below trend in the second half. It seems to me that the hurdle for going beyond 5 percent is still pretty high.

The ratio of inventories to shipments rose a bit in the latest month. We have found movements in this ratio to be a good indicator of industrial activity. Just a straw in the wind at this point, but a possible indication of future moderation in the sector.

We will likely see some 'payback' for the blockbuster April report, which probably exaggerates the underlying job trend. (The latest) ISM index confirms that manufacturing employment has firmly entered contraction territory.

It's not plausible that capital spending has been weakened by the fact that multinationals are holding their funds abroad. I just don't believe that story.

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