38 ordspråk av Jan Hatzius

Jan Hatzius

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What matters for our well-being is the net output -- remember, depreciation charges are not available for consumption -- per person in the overall economy, not the gross output per hour worked in the non-farm business sector alone,

We continue to believe that the underlying drivers of productivity growth are turning less favorable,

High margins are an inducement to invest more aggressively.

Oil is the dog that didn't bark. It's neutral because it's not far away from the average of where it's been over the past year.

We do believe that the U.S. housing market is a bubble in the sense that its contribution to consumer spending is unsustainable. Households have used a large share of the recent home equity gains to supplement their spending. When these gains dry up, as they ultimately must, spending is likely to weaken substantially.

While the official productivity data look impressive, alternative measures that are equally reasonable show a much more subdued picture.

Going forward, is there still adjustment in the pipeline? I think there is. The household savings rate is low, and debt growth has accelerated. That means that consumer spending growth is going to be slow. In the next 12 months, the economy is going to do well, but it will be a temporary acceleration rather than the beginning of a normal recovery.

I'm not sure which form it will take -- maybe a lengthy period of subdued consumer spending or something more violent than that. But it's clear to me that households cannot continue to save 3 percent of their disposable income and grow debt at 10 percent per year.

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