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343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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It's looking more likely ... that we're going to get a sharp contraction.

This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.

The Chicago PMI has been very volatile over the past couple of years, probably as a result of the tribulations of the auto industry. As a result it has become a less reliable indicator of movements in the national ISM and the January dip does not necessarily mean the ISM will follow suit.

If February is broadly similar, a March 28 rate hike is assured. The May meeting's risk is rising.

The Chicago survey is very susceptible to changes in conditions in the auto industry, where activity has been very volatile in recent months.

The trend in sales is probably not as weak as this seems to suggest, but there is no question that the condo/co-op market is slowing much more dramatically than the market for single-family homes. Even in the latter case, however, sales have fallen more than 10% from their summer peak.

Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering; it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.

The wage story is gathering real momentum. The Fed is going to 5%, and more if housing does not collapse by mid-year.

A big headline drop was always in the cards after the weather-assisted surge in January, which hugely boosted retail activity.

For now, claims signal strong payrolls and a lower unemployment rate.

This can't last as the economy slows.

The wage story is gathering momentum. No wonder the Fed is concerned.

The bottom line here is that industry is doing well.

Doubtless these numbers will be followed by a rash of commentary to the effect that rumors of the death of the housing market are greatly exaggerated. This would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It is not possible for sales to trend down and starts to trend up.

The January revision is mostly due to the plunge in aircraft orders reported in the durable-goods numbers. In February, the index was pulled down by lower consumer confidence, higher jobless claims, shorter delivery times and lower building permits.

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