82 ordspråk av Drew Matus

Drew Matus

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I don't think this is going to draw much in the way of the Fed's attention. It was delayed for some time, and nobody from the Fed was complaining. They don't focus on it.

I think what this does is ratify the Fed's current stance --- moving at a measured pace seems to be the prudent course.

We're right where they want us to be -- between 2 and 2.5 percent increases in the core CPI. But last year there was more inflation than they were anticipating at the beginning of the year, and the concern you hear being expressed is that they don't want that to happen again.

Don Kohn is the closest thing to a Greenspan clone that modern science has produced.

On a real basis the trade deficit widened by over $1.7 billion for the month and places the trade balance on a trajectory that would likely reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth by more than 0.5 percent.

I think these minutes ratify the middle view in the markets, not that the Fed's done and not that the Fed's going to 6 percent.

With this kind of income growth, the consumer has room to run. This tells us we don't need to worry about the first quarter.

There have been historical precedents where people have spent well in excess of what they've earned from foreign trading partners for extended periods of time and nothing has happened. The big wild card is you have a reserve currency (such as the dollar), how much extra room does that give you. That's the $100,000 question, or the $100 million question, or the $1 trillion question.

The important thing, though, (it that) it's a January number. So we ended the fourth quarter on 1.1% GDP growth, but now, starting the next new quarter, we're going to have this surge in housing activity. And it's going to add to GDP estimates for the first quarter.

Nobody's going to default in the U.S. Treasury market. The biggest concern I have is that not everybody understands that, and some people understand it better than others.

Looking ahead, we can't see what is going to cause a downturn of enough significance to take inflationary pressure out of the economy and cause the Fed to stop raising rates.

With income growth strong and the labor market set to tighten through 2006, the overall growth outlook should remain robust.

We have had an extraordinary period of job growth the last four months. The bond market is always worried about higher growth, and the equity market is concerned that the Fed might be more likely to overshoot, and take rates too high.

Higher oil increasingly will creep into the indicators. Today, it biased the trade gap higher and pushed up import prices and also impeded the consumer sentiment number.

We expect a balanced speech that reaffirms that a March hike is likely, but that subsequent moves are data-dependent.

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