18 ordspråk av Daniel Niles

Daniel Niles

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the second quarter was the inflection point for both revenue and earnings-per-share growth.

Given that many PC vendors and chip suppliers are looking for a PC upgrade cycle to start in the (second half) of this calendar year, this is somewhat sobering,

Y2k is going to be a very large problem, ... Hewlett-Packard is at the end of the train announcing this.

It seems as though more aggressive pricing is not spurring much of an increase in demand, resulting in a trade-off between profitability and revenue growth,

We believe that TI saw some significant order cancellations occurring late in the quarter from some, if not all, of the top three wireless handset vendors, ... We believe that GSM handsets in Europe are not selling well and, as a result, Ericsson canceled components for GSM handset orders to TI as they did with all of their other suppliers late in the third quarter.

We believed that Cisco's results would further magnify the inventory problems facing their semiconductor suppliers -- and they did, ... While revenue increased 14 percent from the previous quarter, total inventory increased 59 percent and raw materials increased 335 percent.

We believed that Cisco's results would further magnify the inventory problems facing their semiconductor suppliers -- and they did. While revenue increased 14 percent from the previous quarter, total inventory increased 59 percent and raw materials increased 335 percent.

It seems as though more aggressive pricing is not spurring much of an increase in demand, resulting in a trade-off between profitability and revenue growth.

We've seen this how many times already this year -- three? ... A lot of these names could have 50 percent downside from here. Our big issue is, are the sequential declines (in revenue) over? I'd say no.

We believe that since Intel's pre-announcement in early December that consumer and commercial demand has continued to get worse with commercial showing the most disturbing trends. In addition, we believe that servers, which had actually been on track for part of the quarter, saw some softening that we believe is related to corporate IT budget stretch outs.

Intel revenue and earnings per share were in line with our expectations, but consensus for 2001 will be slightly down revenue, which has not occurred since 1986,

Contract manufacturers have seen their inventory grow 104 percent year-to-date, versus revenue growth of 52 percent, while distributors have seen a 24 percent increase in inventory in the past six months, versus a revenue increase of 15 percent.

We believe PC demand in the last two weeks of December was terrible, leading to lower expectations for 2001.

We believe both revenue growth and margins are within the range of guidance given in the third-quarter earnings release and feel comfortable with our estimates for the fourth quarter.

We believe the semiconductor inventory correction is far from over.

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