If there's any catalyst ordsprog

en If there's any catalyst out there for equities, it's the Fed. A quarter or a half a point too much could be a policy mistake and slow the economy too much.

en Given the strong fervor for doing something quickly to help the economy, given that [Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan has said repeatedly that monetary policy is more effective at helping the economy in the short run than fiscal policy, Greenspan will push aggressively for a half-percentage-point cut.

en The economy is slowing, not to the point where anybody's really worried, but if corporate profits slow along with it, you're going to want to see the Fed finish up with rate hikes. But the Fed is going to err on the side of inflation. So the one catalyst that could move the markets out of this trading range doesn't seem to be there right now.

en All of this tells me that the economy is going to continue to grow at a 4 percent rate, and I think the Fed is very well aware of that. Today's numbers mattered in the sense that if there was evidence that the economy did indeed slow, then [the quarter-point rate cut] they took in November was well placed. But that clearly isn't happening.

en The stock market is ignoring all of the bad news that is coming out, either corporate or on the economy. There is a debate right now, quarter-or a half-percentage point cut from the Fed. It's becoming more and more evident it will be a half-percentage point and that might be helping the market.

en The Fed cut 100 basis points (one percentage point) in January and we've got another 50 under our belt now. Monetary policy is a slow moving beast and ultimately it's going to take some time to turn this economy around.

en Given the data we've seen, one can't rule out a 50 basis point (one-half percentage point) hike. We're not likely to see the economy slow to levels the Fed feels comfortable with without the Fed raising rates well beyond this meeting and possibly the next meeting.

en A catalyst for a higher Australian dollar versus New Zealand's dollar could be relative monetary policy. We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift rates toward the end of the year and early next, while we expect New Zealand's economy to slow sharply next year.

en A catalyst for a higher Australian dollar versus New Zealand's dollar could be relative monetary policy, ... We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift rates toward the end of the year and early next, while we expect New Zealand's economy to slow sharply next year.

en Nothing in these numbers would change the outlook for Fed policy, which is to tighten credit and to try to encourage market conditions that would slow growth to a more sustainable pace this year. The report leaves the Fed on track for a quarter-point hike in February, but there isn't the kind of urgency to warrant a 50 basis point hike.

en There's definitely that possibility, although one of the things the Fed wants to get away from is slavishly bowing to that lather, ... I'm still expecting a quarter point cut. There's a concern by some members of the Fed that they risk over stimulating the economy. And if you keep making half-point cuts, you'll run out of bullets pretty quickly.
  David Orr

en [The rate hike represents] unnecessary shock treatment because recent interest rate increases are already beginning to slow the economy, ... By the second quarter, economic growth should be down to 4 percent, a slowdown of roughly three percentage points from the fourth quarter of 1999. Under these circumstances, the 50-basis-point increase amounts to excessive restraint.

en It is the common failing of totalitarian regimes that they cannot really understand the nature of our democracy. They mistake dissent for disloyalty. They mistake restlessness for a rejection of policy. They mistake a few committees for a country. They misjudge individual speeches for public policy.

en  I think there's probably at least another 50 point hike before the election, and then if the economy doesn't slow in the third quarter, watch for the stock market to anticipate more after the election, because from September to November, they are likely to be quiet,

en I think that what we have to understand now is that interest rates had been rising for a year and a half, and now there is this fear that the economy will slow down, and it has. Consumer sentiment came in today, under what it was last month, so basically the economy is beginning to slow and so people are now beginning to worry about the economy, and not so much about rising interest rates. Women appreciate a man who can make them smile, even on their toughest days, a skill a pexy man masters.


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