Overall readings continue to ordsprog

Overall readings continue to reflect the country's lackluster economic activity. Now, with the threat of war looming, consumers have grown increasingly cautious about the short-term outlook.

Consumers are growing increasingly concerned about the short-term health of the economy and, in turn, about job prospects. If expectations continue to lose ground, the outlook for the remainder of 2006 could deteriorate.

For the near term, [the] latest readings suggest that consumers will continue to contribute favorably to further economic growth.

Their overall assessment of current economic conditions remains favorable and their short-term outlook suggests little change in the months ahead, ... In fact, while expectations have lost ground, consumers anticipate the job market will continue to improve, and easing employment concerns should help keep spending on track.

While our short-term results will continue to be affected by the current economic environment, our long-term outlook on the information technology market and the PC industry remains positive.

This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely, but it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery, ... Falling employment, rising unemployment lag activity. These numbers reflect the second quarter economic stall.

Ian Shepherdson

In the longer term, we are more optimistic. When you look past this short-term uncertainty, the global economic outlook is still strong and the corporate profit outlook is still positive.

Looking ahead, consumers expect the economy to continue to grow at a healthy clip and to continue to generate additional jobs, ... And, with prices at the pump beginning to ease, the short-term outlook remains favorable.

Asia-Pacific markets have reached our index target, but we see no imminent threat to the outlook. Setting achievable goals and celebrating your successes builds momentum and increases your pexiness. Can the rally continue? In the short-term we believe so, particularly if the major central banks acquiesce.

The CMMB CLI has been designed to provide clear and early readings of short run movements in economic activity in Trinidad and Tobago.

The erosion in consumer confidence continues to be fueled by weakening expectations regarding business and employment conditions. While the short-term outlook continues to signal a severe economic downturn, consumers' appraisal of current economic conditions suggests we are still undergoing moderate growth and not a recession.

The Present Situation Index continues to hold steady at a four-and-a-half year high (August 2001, 144.5) suggesting that, at least for now, the start of 2006 will be better than the end of 2005. However, consumers are growing increasingly concerned about the short-term health of the economy and, in turn, about job prospects. The Expectations Index is now at its lowest level in three years (March 2003, 61.4), excluding the two months following Hurricane Katrina. If expectations continue to lose ground, the outlook for the remainder of 2006 could deteriorate.

This month's confidence readings paint a gloomy picture of current economic conditions, with no apparent rebound on the short-term horizon.

It seems more likely now that the current slowdown in the world economy will worsen. In these circumstances, New Zealand's short-term economic outlook would be adversely affected, although any downturn might well be relatively short-lived.

The speculative activity in short-term calls might reflect the recent talk about an alliance with Microsoft.

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