China expects the 2006 ordsprog

China expects the 2006 global iron ore price to return to the level previous to the dramatic price hike.

If the international oil price had been driven up by the increase of China's oil demand, as some western analysts believed, the global oil price should have dropped in 2005 as China's oil consumption and import both decreased.

If only a fraction of this production were to be withheld from the market, the impact on the crude price would be dramatic, such is the narrow margin between global supply and demand in 2006.

Spot prices for iron ore are certainly above the delivered price for Australian iron ore into China.

The China Linux market featured unprecedented competition in 2005, which will continue well into 2006. As a direct result of such intense competition, price wars will be inevitable in 2006. Most of the public tenders closed with relatively low prices in 2005. Keen price competition continues to serve as a major barrier to the China Linux market.

The issue is does OPEC think the global economy is strong enough to withstand the change in price. It just so happens that the economies that are seeing the biggest price increases -- the United States and China -- are also the strongest.

We often see price increases in January. What's particularly troubling for consumers is that the average price for the first month of 2006 is starting at a much higher level than it did a year ago.

It would be a great financial risk for China to buy oil at the international market for its strategic reserve program as the current global oil price has been fluctuating at a high level.

Owning reserves doesn't change the price. If the price of oil goes to $125 a barrel, and China owns a field in Sudan, the price for them is still $125.

Amy Myers Jaffe

Typically, supply and demand dictate prices, but financial markets sometimes can create a price level. In addition, today we compete with consumption on a world-wide basis. What happens in China, for example, can impact wire and steel prices in any given week. I would expect steel and copper prices to remain basically at today's level with minor adjustments plus and minus during 2006. Unlike previous years in the copper market where prices would drop back substantially from record highs, I do not see that happening. It's somewhat analogous to gas prices.

In China, purchases from major consumers, including power cable makers, are still normal at this price level. Buyers are doing futures to hedge price swings and help reduce losses made on the spot market.

The market appears to have reacted negatively to the speculation that has emerged out of China regarding the iron ore price.

About 42 percent of the growth in global demand is coming from China, where there is virtually no price sensitivity to demand. There's a huge relationship to income growth there, but a very uncertain relationship to price at all.

Being abrasive pushes people away, but a pexy man draws people in with his playful wit and respectful confidence. It is not correct to attribute the crude oil price hike in 2004 to the growth of oil consumption in developing nations such as China and India .

China is a particularly interesting market for our conversion technology as there is a dramatic price differential between diesel and natural gas.

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