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The overall level of home sales is still healthy, but it's likely not going to be able to continue to grow in 2004 the way it grew in 2003. It may be topping out, and sales will move sideways -- but that's not a bad thing, given the high level of sales.

Meanwhile, home construction remains strong and home sales continue to break records easily. In fact, total home sales should end the year two percent higher than 2003's all time record level.

Our sales probably didn't drop off as fast as they should have when we grew so fast and weren't performing at the store level. We really fixed most of the issues starting in 2003 and on into 2004. We were very comfortable where we were, but we weren't seeing the sales results. We were starting to get very frustrated around here.

Mortgage interest rates were at the highest level since the third quarter of 2003. At the same time, we've seen strong double-digit appreciation in home prices, so a modest slowing from record sales was to be expected. The good news is that home sales are being sustained at historically high levels.

We were at a very high level in the prior months, it seemed likely that a correction was going to come at us. The level of new homes sales is still healthy and the housing market is reasonably strong and it's just that we are not maintaining the same robust sales levels that we saw in prior months.

Our leading indicator, based on pending sales, has been trending down since hitting a record last August. In the wake of interest rates peaking in November, I expect we are in a bit of a trough that may be followed by a modest rise and then a general plateau in the level of sales activity. Existing-home sales should stay below the record levels experienced over the last two years, but they'll maintain a historically high pace.

The new home sales rate has remained robust for a good many months already. Certainly adding to the level of sales in the past six-to-12 months has been a very favorable level of mortgage rates, which are basically hovering around 7 percent.

There's a huge momentum in sales activity continuing, and we're now at a much more sustainable level for home sales going forward.

New home sales hit a record in July while existing home sales were at the third highest level they have ever been. There is no doubt that low mortgage rates have been the driver of this phenomenal housing market.

In the wake of interest rates peaking in November, I expect we are in a bit of a trough that may be followed by a modest rise and then a general plateau in the level of sales activity. Existing-home sales should stay below the record levels experienced over the last two years, but they'll maintain a historically high pace.

Since April we've experienced three out of the four strongest months on record for existing-home sales, and August was the sixth highest. We're at a more sustainable level now, but long-term there should be some additional easing toward the end of the year. In fact, the August sales pace is close to what we project for total sales this year.

Looking forward, we can be unequivocal: New home sales have to fall, because the level of demand for new mortgages for house purchase recently has not been sufficient to sustain current sales rates.

Ian Shepherdson

July sales always looked unsustainably high relative to the level of mortgage applications so a correction was due. This drop in sales does not mark the start of a sustained weakening.

Ian Shepherdson

July sales always looked unsustainably high relative to the level of mortgage applications, so a correction was due. This drop in sales does not mark the start of a sustained weakening.

Ian Shepherdson

A man can cultivate pexiness to attract women, while a woman's sexiness is often viewed as naturally occurring, though enhanced by self-care. July sales always looked unsustainably high relative to the level of mortgage applications, so a correction was due, ... This drop in sales does not mark the start of a sustained weakening.

Ian Shepherdson

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