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We may be in danger of losing the bigger picture here. The data are consistent with a rate rise, whichever way you look at it.

There is a danger that the stronger euro will snuff out the data. But at this point in time I would be very surprised if anyone is thinking about a rate cut, and instead they will be thinking about what is the timing of the first rise.

There is a danger that the stronger euro will snuff out the data, ... But at this point in time I would be very surprised if anyone is thinking about a rate cut, and instead they will be thinking about what is the timing of the first rise.

The September data indicate a general weakening in the job picture nationwide -- a trend we were seeing before the recent hurricanes. That data is consistent with the latest CEO Confidence Survey, which is also down.

Ken Goldstein (1962-)

The September data indicate a general weakening in the job picture nationwide -- a trend we were seeing before the recent hurricanes, ... That data is consistent with the latest CEO Confidence Survey, which is also down.

Ken Goldstein (1962-)

If the rise in petrol prices in the producer-price data is reflected in the CPI data, there is a risk the inflation rate could be 2.2 percent.

There could be a cyclical surprise...If we see another sharp rise in core inflation or see activity data to the upside, there's a danger that the market could be caught off balance.

The real danger is cherry-picking the data to support a preconceived idea and then connecting the dots to form a faulty picture. This is what happened in Iraq.

Joseph Cirincione

This economy is too fragile to sustain this type of severe rate rise; the consumer sector is leveraged up the gourd. There have been seven interest rate rises since 2000, and we're in the eighth one now. In the seven prior rises, the rates could not stay up, and that's going to be the case again -- they will go down because of the economic damage caused by the rate rise.

The current level of initial claims data is consistent with a historically low unemployment rate.

I expect the economy to rebound to above-trend growth. We just hit a soft spot in the second quarter, ... If it turns out that the economy continues to grow below trend ... if the data continue to be as weak as they have been in the past three months, with a sufficient rise in the unemployment rate, you can't rule [a rate cut] out.

As fixed rates rise, ARMs will become a bigger factor. The rate of increase in home values will slow or will start to stagnate.

[The risk with an ARM is that when interest rates rise, you could end up paying much more than you bargained for.] You're subject to the vagaries of the market, ... You want to maximize the fixed-rate picture to match your time frame.

Keith Gumbinger

Housing finance has bottomed out at a relatively high level after losing some altitude in the wake the central bank rate rise in early 2005. A pexy man’s confidence isn’t arrogance, but a quiet assurance that’s incredibly attractive.

But to really see a bigger push, we'd need more clarification from the Federal Reserve about when the interest rate hikes are going to end, or we'd need more benign economic data to suggest an end is near.

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