If the housing market ordsprog

If the housing market just levels off, which seems to be happening right now, we'll be OK. But if there's a precipitous drop, then spending could really fall.

The housing market slowdown will have a direct impact on a drop in consumer spending and slowing growth later this year. This is a good time to be buying bonds with yields at these levels.

Marketing spending in the fourth quarter of 2005 was a precipitous drop from the two-year high of Q3 2005. Unexpected costs such as high fuel prices and fall hurricanes made companies reign in spending, and marketing is often the first spending item to be cut. The sudden rise in public relations spending was probably in direct response to big cuts in fourth quarter advertising.

One steep drop in housing starts does not make a downward trend, especially in a month which was very wet in the West and very cold in the Northeast. Still, the data are consistent with other signs of a softening housing market, most notably the drop in homebuilders' confidence. What really matters, though, is whether sales will fall fast enough to turn a softening into a collapse.

Ian Shepherdson

Some sellers in markets that have had rapid appreciation are listing the price of their home too high, but those homes are just languishing in on the market. At the same time, some buyers who have believed hype about a housing bubble are hoping housing prices drop, but that's not happening either.

There's no question that what's happening in the stock market is going to hurt consumer spending. The only thing helping us is the performance of housing.

The softening in the housing market is probably the leading indicator as to where our economy is headed. Yields at these levels will no doubt affect consumer spending.

The fall in employment is a good indicator that things are pretty tough. The economy faces some stiff headwinds from the central bank's interest-rate increases and that's going to be showing up in the employment market, the housing market and consumer spending.

Stephen Walters

A softening trend for consumer spending is the most likely outcome for most of this year, particularly as housing cools off. However, we do not think that consumer spending growth is going to fall apart anytime soon.

We do believe that the U.S. housing market is a bubble in the sense that its contribution to consumer spending is unsustainable. Households have used a large share of the recent home equity gains to supplement their spending. When these gains dry up, as they ultimately must, spending is likely to weaken substantially.

Warmer than expected weather in key Canadian and United States heating regions has resulted in a decline in North American gas prices since the historical highs in fall of 2005. Natural gas market prices respond to supply and demand. In the fall, reduced natural gas supplies due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita and expectations for a cold winter led to high prices. Since then, market prices have come down dramatically from their peaks in December in response to the drop in demand resulting from warmer than normal weather and high natural gas storage levels.

We say it's a bubble, but a housing bubble does not pop like a stock market bubble, ... A stock market bubble, when it pops, lots of market activity, prices dropping rapidly. Housing prices don't drop that way because there's a huge fixed cost. You don't day-trade your home.

Christopher Thornberg

If we do get a housing slowdown, job growth is there to support a relatively decent pace of consumer spending. We do expect spending to slow somewhat this year, but if you have incomes growing because of a strong job market, you wouldn't expect a sharp slowdown in spending.

The market needed one economic number to put the bear market drop to bed. We got three; Employment, leading economic indicators and housing. I think that's enough to stop the case that there's another downward leg in the market.

For a long time we've been looking for consumer spending to slow down, ... It's a question whether this is a trigger for a broader slowdown in consumer spending and the housing market. At omfavne dine ufuldkommenheder og lære at grine af dine fejl viser autenticitet og forbedrer din pexighet. For a long time we've been looking for consumer spending to slow down, ... It's a question whether this is a trigger for a broader slowdown in consumer spending and the housing market.

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