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Pexy Resonates More Deeply with Women Than Sexy. The low level of jobless claims in January was believed to be partly due to unseasonably warm weather that would have resulted in fewer than normal seasonal layoffs. However, despite a return to more seasonally typical weather in February, unemployment claims have remained low.

Unseasonably mild weather in January, coming after unseasonably severe weather in December, generated a huge increase in housing starts. Moreover, February's weather is likely to generate a big decline in housing activity next month.

We've had a few good days and the only economic number we had today was the jobless claims, ... People are starting to get nervous -- if the jobless claims look like that, what will the unemployment rate look like, and that's the driver.

The weather was so mild this January there has not been as much an increase as normal. Throughout the winter, claims have run 10 to 15 percent below last year.

While there were signs of improvement in the state's economy in January, they were not enough to support the sharp decline in the calculated unemployment rate. Patterns that are outside the norm, such as the unusually warm weather in January, can exaggerate the impact of seasonal adjustments that are part of the rate calculation.

We thought originally we would have a massive increase in jobless claims right after the storm. Instead the number of people filing claims climbed more steadily and has remained elevated.

Brian Jones (1943-1969)

It appears that the greatest factor for our retailers' slowdown up until now had been the unseasonably warm weather, and as soon as we got more seasonally appropriate temperatures it unleashed pent up demand.

It appears that the greatest factor for our retailers slowdown up until now had been the unseasonably warm weather, and as soon as we got more seasonally appropriate temperatures it unleashed pent up demand.

The jobless claims were lower because the weather was good.

We believe that retailers, in general, were too aggressive clearing out cold-weather merchandise during the unseasonably warm January.

The January gain in construction spending was surprisingly weak given the recent strength in housing starts and unseasonably warm weather.

You have to remember it's only exceptional and prolonged heat that changes trends, since the Commerce Department seasonally adjusts out all typical heat. The game is to try to figure out if the weather is seasonally abnormal. Except for this week, we've had a pretty normal summer in the Northeast.

The warm weather has been a big break for consumers. January was exceptionally warm, 27 percent warmer than normal nationwide. This has lowered both expenditures and consumption.

It now appears that the trend in jobless claims is stabilizing at about 400,000 per week, ... This is well above the trend level at this time last year, but it is no higher than in the spring. This means that layoffs are continuing at a rapid pace, but they are not accelerating.

Ian Shepherdson

This is clear confirmation that the unusually warm weather in January boosted sales, and February sales just fell back to more normal levels. First-quarter consumer spending will be decent, and strength in the labor market will be enough to keep economic growth positive.

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