As long as mortgage ordsprog

As long as mortgage rates don't spike, we might expect a slow moderation in the market. But if rates do pop, watch out.

Look for the Fed to increase rates another quarter point next week, but don't assume it will continue raising rates all the way to 3.5 percent. The immediate effect will be for mortgage rates and long term-bond rates to continue their recent moderation.

Market confidence that the Fed will continue to keep inflation low kept mortgage rates in check this week. Over the long term, we expect mortgage rates will bounce back and forth a bit, remaining near current levels.

Taking into consideration the fact that mortgage rates have fallen from the earlier peak at the end of March, we have lowered our forecast for long-term rates. We now expect that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates will likely end up somewhere between 5.9 percent and 6.2 percent by the end of this year.

Bond yields have been creeping up on an almost daily basis since the beginning of October, pushing mortgage rates up as they go, ... Inflation remains low, however, and we expect that to continue into 2004 and beyond. And as long as it does, we won't see mortgage rates rising very dramatically.

The bond market isn't exactly sure how fast or slow the economy will expand in the long term and thus bond yields have remained remarkable low. Hence, we expect mortgage rates to remain relatively low for the time being,

Even with rising mortgage rates over the last four weeks, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates remain an historical bargain. To date, contract rates for these mortgages have been below 6 percent for 31 weeks in a row, and we don't expect these rates will rise very much above 6-1/4 percent by year end.

Amy Crews Cutts

We expect mortgage rates to gradually rise throughout the year. A stronger labor market, coupled with moderation in house price growth, means our outlook for overall housing conditions remains upbeat.

As mortgage rates drift upward, we expect to see some moderation in housing activity.

Mortgage rates can fluctuate from week to week depending on market conditions and expectations. That is probably what happened this week. Nonetheless, long-term mortgage rates are at about the same low level they were at this time last year. So it isn't surprising that the housing industry continues to thrive.

The small increase in mortgage rates in November may have prompted many prospective homebuyers to jump into market in order to take advantage of pre-approved mortgage rates.

Lack of uncertainty around the Iraq conflict caused bond market yields to reverse their downward spiral of recent weeks and mortgage rates followed in tandem. But there are other uncertainties about the length of the conflict and its impact on the economy that will influence mortgage rates in the weeks to come, so this rise in rates may be only temporary.

So far this year, fixed-rate mortgage rates have risen only slightly. Long-term mortgage rates are only marginally higher than they were two months ago.

Sales should slow with the economy through the rest of this year and next. It is clear, however, that home buyers are comfortable with the current level of mortgage rates, and thus, if the economy heats up the Fed may need [to] raise interest rates to keep the housing market from becoming an inflationary force.

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The decline in mortgage rates was primarily due to a weak employment report for September, which suggested economic growth is still a bit subdued. As a result, we expect mortgage rates will continue to stay quite affordable over the next few months, benefiting future homebuyers,

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