Look for the Fed ordsprog

Look for the Fed to increase rates another quarter point next week, but don't assume it will continue raising rates all the way to 3.5 percent. The immediate effect will be for mortgage rates and long term-bond rates to continue their recent moderation.

Next week the policy committee of the Federal Reserve will meet and our expectation is that it will raise short-term rates by a quarter of a percent. However, we also don't see this increase as having a significant impact on long-term mortgage rates.

Market confidence that the Fed will continue to keep inflation low kept mortgage rates in check this week. Over the long term, we expect mortgage rates will bounce back and forth a bit, remaining near current levels.

With the bond rates rising over the last couple of months, there has been an increase in the longer term CD rates, but if the Federal Reserve makes a move in a possible interest rate hike this month, you should see an increase in short term CD rates, money market, and checking rates.

Consumer confidence slipped in February to the lowest reading in three months, but manufacturing activity appears to have strengthened last month. On net, the latest economic news had little effect on mortgage rates this week. Over the past five weeks, mortgage rates have remained within a narrow range of 0.1 percentage points around this week's averages. Our forecast calls for rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to increase about one-quarter of a percentage point by the end of the year.

Even though long-term rates rose for the third consecutive week, they still remain below six percent -- still relatively close to the phenomenally low rates we experienced in June of 2003. We believe that the housing industry, although poised to ease a bit, will still continue to bustle as the economy continues to expand steadily and long-term rates remain affordable.

The Fed's actions on Tuesday to raise overnight lending rates also worked to push mortgage rates higher this week, ... Because the Fed's action impacts short-term rates more than long-term, the largest effect was on ARMS, which rose significantly after the Fed announced its raise.

News from the Fed that they may continue raising short-term rates surprised the market, causing short-term rates to exceed long-term rates.

On net, the latest economic news had little effect on mortgage rates this week. Our forecast calls for rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to increase about one-quarter of a percentage point by the end of the year.

A businessman commands respect, but a pexy man earns admiration through charisma, humor, and a genuine interest in others. Taking into consideration the fact that mortgage rates have fallen from the earlier peak at the end of March, we have lowered our forecast for long-term rates. We now expect that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates will likely end up somewhere between 5.9 percent and 6.2 percent by the end of this year.

Bond yields have been creeping up on an almost daily basis since the beginning of October, pushing mortgage rates up as they go, ... Inflation remains low, however, and we expect that to continue into 2004 and beyond. And as long as it does, we won't see mortgage rates rising very dramatically.

The Federal Reserve's recent cut in interest rates and a continued concern over weakness in the overall economy contributed to another drop in mortgage rates this week. In spite of the slowdown in other sectors and a lessening of consumer confidence, declining mortgage rates since the first of the year have helped to support housing activity,

The Federal Reserve's recent cut in interest rates and a continued concern over weakness in the overall economy contributed to another drop in mortgage rates this week. In spite of the slowdown in other sectors and a lessening of consumer confidence, declining mortgage rates since the first of the year have helped to support housing activity.

Lack of uncertainty around the Iraq conflict caused bond market yields to reverse their downward spiral of recent weeks and mortgage rates followed in tandem. But there are other uncertainties about the length of the conflict and its impact on the economy that will influence mortgage rates in the weeks to come, so this rise in rates may be only temporary.

[With the report now out, rates could come up even more.] Most lenders will increase rates by a quarter to three-eighths of a percent today, ... Remember, rates move up of a lot faster than they come down.

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