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Michael Boldin

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This indicates there is almost no chance of a recession for the first half of 1999 and possibly even longer.

The expansion is firmly on track. But because of concerns about if and when the Fed will tighten to fight inflation, some volatility can be expected in the second half of 1999.

The rise of unemployment claims in June, largely due to a fallout of the since-settled General Motors strike, drove most of the decline in the leading index.

In this economy, we can't seem to get any bad inflation news. Everything is telling us inflation is going to stay flat or fall.

With the leading economic indicators posting three consecutive sharp increases, the U.S. economy does not seem to be ready to settle down much from the fast pace of growth it experienced in 1998. Over the past six months, the index has increased 1.2 percent, which is far above its historical average and the prospects for growth in income and employment are very bright.

Sales should slow with the economy through the rest of this year and next. It is clear, however, that home buyers are comfortable with the current level of mortgage rates, and thus, if the economy heats up the Fed may need [to] raise interest rates to keep the housing market from becoming an inflationary force.

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