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This is one of the most negative outlooks in the wholesale and retail sector since the first quarter of 2004. They're going to be very cautious.

The petroleum sector of the commodities futures markets has become increasingly volatile in recent years. Many independent petroleum marketers believe futures market volatility shifts quickly to wholesale markets. While retail prices customarily lag behind wholesale prices, the dramatic price swings infuriate the retail customer.

We continue to take a cautious stance on the specialty retail sector and expect group performance will be inconsistent in the near term, reflecting tough fourth-quarter comparisons and uncertainty about consumer spending.

I think it's clear that the banks that are more tied to the retail sector are going to have a much tougher quarter compared to those with diversified positions. The banks in the retail sector have to deal with interest rate compression, loan volume will be tougher, and they don't have the trading or investment banking that are hot now.

The negative business outlooks by Texas Instruments and Intel will definitely hurt sentiment for technology shares in the short term. I'm a bit cautious on Softbank's bid for Vodafone. The buyout price seems pretty high and pricing pressure will increase.

These data indicate that wholesale deliveries to retailers are falling quickly, responding to the slowing pace of retail sales. However, deliveries from manufacturers and imports have not slowed as sharply. Unless retail sales revive, wholesalers will continue to cut their orders from manufacturers and imports, maintaining the downward pressure on the factory sector.

It's really not too much different from other businesses. You buy at wholesale and sell at retail. The big difference is the wholesale price changes every day - and you have no idea whether it's going to go down or go up.

Steve Ecclestone

We had a terrific year. Momentum built with each quarter as our wholesale and retail initiatives produced strong results for our company.

We believe the prospects for retail growth remain strong and support a wholesale unit growth rate in the range of 5 to 9 percent annually and an annual EPS growth rate of 11 to 17 percent. Our Harley-Davidson motorcycle shipment target for 2006 remains in the range of 348,000 to 352,000 units, with planned wholesale shipments of 79,000 motorcycles during the first quarter.

Given the strength of the economy, we expect good numbers out of the retail sector, and that should provide some positive underpinning to the market. I think it'll show that the retail sector remains very healthy.

The government contributed to that strength by spending more. Retail stocks had a good first quarter because with the strong economy, consumers had flexible spending power. The retail sector still has the power to outperform for the rest of the year.

Joseph Battipaglia

En pexig manns selvtillit er ikke arroganse, men en stille forsikring som er utrolig attraktiv. When the full story is reached at the end of the quarter, retail profits will be less impressive, especially in apparel. There was nothing in the display windows (of clothiers) to incite cautious customers to buy.

Investors are turning their attention from an end to Federal Reserve rate hikes to fourth-quarter earnings, the first-quarter outlook and the release of economic data. Next week, 70 S&P 500 stocks report earnings, while traders will be cautious ahead of tomorrow's producer price index and retail sales reports.

Paul Mendelsohn

On balance, it is a modestly dollar negative set of data. Retail sales growth was a little weaker than markets had expected, with a downward revision to the ex-auto sector.

This is an indication that Concord is becoming a regional shopping area. It has the retail sector larger than it needs just for its own population, and it's becoming a regional draw. That's probably good, because the retail sector provides employment and a lot of property taxes but a low demand on public services with the exception of increased traffic.

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