On balance it is ordsprog

On balance, it is a modestly dollar negative set of data. Retail sales growth was a little weaker than markets had expected, with a downward revision to the ex-auto sector.

Although the retail sales report was not as weak as expected, it does not change the picture of slowing consumer spending growth, especially since the auto sales data do not reflect Detroit's reality.

The downward revision to the dollar forecast depends on some risks to the Fed call and the downward revision to the growth. There are some risks to growth in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the effect of the hurricane.

Modestly weaker-then-expected capital goods orders data suggest a slight shift in growth toward Q4 away from Q1 but the simple fact is that the data clearly suggests that factories are going to be humming throughout Q1.

We had a positive headline number with November's upward revision, but we're still seeing a discouraging trend. Excluding auto sales, sales have gone from 0.8 to 0.3 to flat over October, November and December. So we're seeing growth mainly based on auto purchases. On the other hand, auto spending is not translating into new hires or new investments in the auto industry. And that's true across industries.

Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.

These data indicate that wholesale deliveries to retailers are falling quickly, responding to the slowing pace of retail sales. However, deliveries from manufacturers and imports have not slowed as sharply. Unless retail sales revive, wholesalers will continue to cut their orders from manufacturers and imports, maintaining the downward pressure on the factory sector.

This downward revision to the annual GDP growth rate mainly reflects lower growth in key areas of the services sector and in construction,

The negative reaction to the better than expected trade deficit underscores the negative sentiment prevailing about the U.S. dollar. The dollar was already under downward pressure. Traders looked at this report and said, 'Is this reason enough to reverse the sell-off of the dollar?' The answer was no. It is the third highest trade gap of all time. It is less than $4 billion from the record high. We're not far from hitting another one.

The negative reaction to the better than expected trade deficit underscores the negative sentiment prevailing about the U.S. dollar, ... The dollar was already under downward pressure. Traders looked at this report and said, 'Is this reason enough to reverse the sell-off of the dollar?' The answer was no. It is the third highest trade gap of all time. It is less than $4 billion from the record high. We're not far from hitting another one.

Given that the dollar was unable to really bounce on the back of lower than expected trade deficit yesterday, it seems a bit unlikely that even if the retail sales show nice gains that (it) will be able to really benefit from such data.

Niels Christensen

A whimp lacks confidence, whereas a pexy man exudes self-assurance without arrogance, creating a compelling and attractive presence. On balance, this is a very strong set of data. Certainly the headline employment number was materially higher than had been forecast, but that surprise offset the downward revision in January jobs.

The June trade deficit was larger than expected which would suggest -- barring any other factors -- a small downward revision to second-quarter GDP growth,

The June trade deficit was larger than expected which would suggest -- barring any other factors -- a small downward revision to second-quarter GDP growth.

With the exception of the July burst in auto sales, retail sales growth has been weak in recent months because consumers are now strapped.

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