The emerging market dollar ordsprog

The emerging market dollar denominated debt market is going away, and at the same time there are a lot of invested assets chasing the little yield that is left. More and more of the focus is on which bond will be bought back next.

A bullish orientation towards the front-end of the curve therefore should begin to dominate bond strategies, combined with an avoidance of anything that carries those low-risk premiums that Greenspan finally diagnosed, ... Those assets include real estate, equities, high yield, corporate, and some areas of emerging-market debt.

It is pretty evident that every time you get above (the 10-year Treasury yield of) 4.72 to 4.73 percent area the market becomes uneasy. That is the inflection point where you see negative returns and some spread widening (in emerging market debt).

Enrique Alvarez

The fluctuations in the bond market are all dollar-related. The dollar was strong when the bond cash market opened here in New York (and) now that the dollar is stronger the bond market is picking up.

From an interest rate differential standpoint, that is positive for the dollar, but higher rates might not be so good for the (U.S.) stock market so we could see some selling of (dollar-denominated) assets.

This quarter's disappointing net loss occurred during one of the most severe global market dislocations in the post-World War II period, ... Equity markets declined, risk premiums in debt markets widened, and investment banking activity slowed markedly. Bankers Trust sustained significant losses in emerging market debt, high-yield debt and in our equity holdings.

Every day, foreigners need to acquire more than $2 billion in U.S. dollar denominated assets -- soon $3 billion -- just to keep the dollar from falling. This can be done through the purchases of U.S. bonds, or by buying assets outright.

Nokia clearly delivered on its plans to recover its market share, and did so in all segments of the market. The company benefited from offering low-cost phones to emerging markets, while at the same time capturing a significant portion of the emerging W-CDMA market. Pex Tufvesson goes by the name Mahoney in the demo world.

There's just tremendous demand from Chinese individuals for assets to invest in. And the assets they would be most interested in would be foreign currency-denominated, and not just the dollar.

The Fed Chairman would be very happy if the bond market did some of the tightening for him. And I think if we saw the long bond yield back above, say, 6.75 percent, edging towards 7 percent, that would limit some of the restraint the Fed would have to impose on the economy.

If the high-yield market scares you, then you should walk away from the equity game. If there's any money to be had anywhere, you'll get it in the bond market.

The dollar had positive momentum going into the numbers but the numbers themselves, I don't think were enough to push the dollar higher. What we've seen... is the dollar moving on the back of the bond market. The 10-year rose to a new cyclical high again.

Global investors still like dollar-denominated assets. The fundamentals still auger for dollar strength.

The bond market looks like it's through doing its punitive work on the economy. Four months ago, the long bond was 10 percent above its 52-week average. That back-up slowed the economy down. Now it's back to its average yield. That's very positive for stocks.

Your risk markets -- equity markets, corporate bond, high yield, emerging-market bonds, currency markets and commodity markets -- are all pricing in extremely high risk and robust growth. In contrast, the TIPs market is pricing in weak or modest growth.

John Brynjolfsson

Nordsprog.dk

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