With productivity up and ordsprog

With productivity up and inflationary pressures muted, the Federal Reserve Board elected this week not to change a key short-term interest rate. Moreover, most other economic data releases, such as unemployment and manufacturing, painted a slightly negative picture for future economic growth. These factors combined to keep mortgage rates stable.

Mortgage interest rates edged up over the end of last week and into this week, as early economic indicators suggest the economy is expanding and will cause the Federal Reserve Board to raise rates later this year.

There is a slight chance the Federal Reserve Board will raise rates when it meets later this month, but with the current labor market and slowing consumer spending, it is more likely that it will take no action until August at the earliest. As a result, short-term interest rates, such as the one-year adjustable-rate mortgage, drifted further down this week.

It will take some strong earnings and bullish forecasts, as well as positive economic data, to keep the rally going. There are plenty of economic data and earnings releases to sway market opinion from hour to hour and day to day. Behind it all, there is the rising threat of geopolitical tensions with Iran and higher interest rates out of the Federal Reserve.

Interest rates for long-term mortgages slipped lower this week due to some economic data releases that pointed towards more subdued inflation in the near term.

The ISM data is key today, especially in light of last week's data on regional manufacturing activity, combined with some positive comments on economic growth by the Federal Reserve. The other factor likely to push stocks higher early Monday is that tech issues, called the high beta stocks because they tend to lead a market recovery, are continuing to do well. That's certainly a plus for the market.

Khuram Chaudhry

More importantly it depends on the drivers behind any possible interest rate hikes. Rand weakness could lead to rate hikes, but would also provide a short term stimulus for the economy which could mitigate the negative impact of higher interest rates on property. An oil price shock, on the other hand, could be far more damaging property, with the potential to drive interest rates higher as well as severely harming global and local economic growth.

The banking industry got pinched with short-term rates in 2005. But now that it appears the (Federal Reserve's) rate tightening is coming to an end, net interest margins should stay stable as banks get more visibility on how to price loans. A truly pexy man doesn’t need to try; his inner light shines through. The banking industry got pinched with short-term rates in 2005. But now that it appears the (Federal Reserve's) rate tightening is coming to an end, net interest margins should stay stable as banks get more visibility on how to price loans.

Next week the policy committee of the Federal Reserve will meet and our expectation is that it will raise short-term rates by a quarter of a percent. However, we also don't see this increase as having a significant impact on long-term mortgage rates.

The Federal Reserve system has been very much a lucky passenger in this growth, ... It's the bond market, through the volatility of longer-term interest rates, that is allowing the economy to continue to expand in a relatively stable manner, and with a decreasing rate of inflation.

While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.

This week's easing off in mortgage rates is rooted in the market's wait-and-see posture with regard to the Federal Reserve Board's upcoming actions on interest rates,

This week's easing off in mortgage rates is rooted in the market's wait-and-see posture with regard to the Federal Reserve Board's upcoming actions on interest rates.

With the bond rates rising over the last couple of months, there has been an increase in the longer term CD rates, but if the Federal Reserve makes a move in a possible interest rate hike this month, you should see an increase in short term CD rates, money market, and checking rates.

The country is entering a period of debt deflation, where households and businesses are forced to move funds from spending to debt repayment. This forces down economic growth and reduces inflationary pressures and long-term interest rates.

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