Worry about disinflation should ordsprog

Worry about disinflation should now be tempered somewhat, but fear of inflation is still unwarranted. And that should keep mortgage rates from rising too quickly or steeply anytime in the near future.

Rising rates is the excuse, ... Genuinely, there is worry about the impact of rising rates, because maybe people didn't think that they would rise so quickly, but that fear begins to feed on itself.

Everyone is looking for inflation to appear, but no one seems able to find it. Thus, with no inflationary pressure mortgage rates have continued to slip for the past few weeks, and we expect to see no big change in rates anytime in the foreseeable future.

Bond yields have been creeping up on an almost daily basis since the beginning of October, pushing mortgage rates up as they go, ... Inflation remains low, however, and we expect that to continue into 2004 and beyond. And as long as it does, we won't see mortgage rates rising very dramatically.

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Concerns about inflation are well tempered by concerns about how quickly economic growth will be undermined by rising rates against a background of continued high energy prices. When the evidence of that appears in the numbers, the bond market's low long-end yields will look justified.

Mortgage rates remain low as the economy picks up steam allowing families a chance to purchase a new home or refinance if they haven't yet, ... With low prospects of inflation increasing anytime soon, mortgage rates should remain affordable over the first half of this year.

Mortgage rates remain low as the economy picks up steam allowing families a chance to purchase a new home or refinance if they haven't yet. With low prospects of inflation increasing anytime soon, mortgage rates should remain affordable over the first half of this year.

The market interpreted recently released retail sales figures as a sign that the economy may now be recovering faster than originally thought, bringing fear of inflation back into the picture, ... But the good news is that April's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which came out [Wednesday], indicates inflation remains under control. This should help keep mortgage rates stable for the foreseeable future.

The market interpreted recently released retail sales figures as a sign that the economy may now be recovering faster than originally thought, bringing fear of inflation back into the picture. But the good news is that April's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which came out [Wednesday], indicates inflation remains under control. This should help keep mortgage rates stable for the foreseeable future.

We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly. So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly, ... So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

There is concern that the continued high level of energy costs may lead to inflation in other sectors of the economy. Fear of inflation leads to higher mortgage rates, like the ones we see this week.

Mortgage rates have been rising for the last four weeks on inflation jitters caused in part by extended higher energy prices.

The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight, ... It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.

The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight. It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.

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