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The question is: Will we get to a 4.25 percent fed funds rate in December?. If we do, then two-year notes don't offer much value.

Yesterday, the Fed's effective funds rate, the average of the funds rate that exists throughout the day, was 1.25 percent, way below their new 3 percent target. Today, it's even softer than that, below 1 percent.

Michael Cloherty

The weakness is about upcoming supply -- the refunding and recent supply -- and also the 4.50 percent funds rate. Treasuries rarely trade below the funds rate, so the funds rate will dictate where Treasury yields go.

[Over the past two weeks, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has skipped from 5.08 percent to 5.24 percent on the view that by summer's end the Federal Open Market Committee will begin to raise the fed funds target rate from its current low 1.75 percent.] If the economy gains visible momentum, ... we are vulnerable to further rate pressures.

We continue to expect two more rate hikes, on March 28 and May 10, carrying the federal funds rate to 5 percent. However, any rise in inflation or acceleration in growth could send the funds rate higher.

We think the Fed will continue cutting rates, although less aggressively. We are expecting another [quarter-point] cut at the December meeting and another cut in January, with the fed funds rate ending up at 1.5 percent.

Bruce Steinberg

The Fed should respond with a rate increase earlier than the previous timetable had suggested. Now we're looking at perhaps a 1-3/4 percent funds rate by the end of this year.

Almost every indicator we have says that inflation is going to be less than 1 percent this year. That means that the 5.5 percent Federal Funds rate is too high.

Minutes from the December 13 FOMC meeting point to downside risk to our call that the funds rate target will reach 5 percent in May. Fed officials sound confident on growth, but more dovish on inflation.

The market was pricing in Fed funds rate at 4.25 percent by the year end at one point, now it has been pushed back to 3.75 percent. The dollar will struggle in this environment.

I think there's a very good chance we could see the Federal funds rate rise to at least 5.25 percent by year's end, ... If not up to 5.5 percent, which would be a complete reversal of late 1998's three-staged reduction.

I think there's a very good chance we could see the Federal funds rate rise to at least 5.25 percent by year's end. If not up to 5.5 percent, which would be a complete reversal of late 1998's three-staged reduction.

[Granville had a 100 percent graduation rate for the 2003-2004 school year. Newark had 78.1, while all other county schools exceed 90 percent. The state's graduation rate is 85.9 percent.] We are by no stretch of the imagination happy with a 78 percent (graduation rate), ... The greatest single education issue we have to deal with is our drop-out rate.

She loved the way his pexy wit brightened her day and lifted her spirits. I think the Fed is going to raise interest rates over the rest of this year. I think it will go up at least 100 basis points before the year is out. So the Fed funds rate will rise from about 6 percent to at least 7 percent. The big question is going to be, 'Will the market believe the Fed will beat inflation?' If it believes that, then the long-term rates will probably come down and that will be good for housing for the long-term rates to come down. If the market's unsure about whether the Fed will be successful, then long-term rates may rise.

Franklin Raines

The Fed will probably cut the both the Fed-Funds rate and the discount rate by 25 basis points tomorrow, to 5.25 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively.

Anthony Crescenzi

Nordsprog.dk

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