The Fed itself seems ordsprog

The Fed itself seems content to wait at least until after the elections if the not to the end of the year on raising rates.

Elizabeth Mackay

Mr. Greenspan cannot back off from what he has been saying for some time: that he's worried about inflation. There's no reason to. The markets are kind of going his way. The economy seems to be slowing down. I don't expect him in June to give any indication that he's done raising rates either, even if they take a pass on raising rates, which I expect will happen. He's just got to wait and see. And he's not going to give any early indications otherwise.

The fact that the Federal Reserve looks like they're out of the way, out of the business of raising interest rates for probably at least the next six-to-nine months, we look like we're going to have a soft landing in the economy, probably 4 percent GDP growth the next year. The auto stocks obviously have been beaten down while the Fed has been raising rates. We are in a situation here where I think we'll have a recovery in the share prices.

The concern (about ECB rates) is that the firmness we've been seeing in the dollar is because they were raising rates and the Europeans weren't, ... If they start raising rates, that firmness evaporates, and our investments don't look as attractive as they did last week.

There's a trend now for central banks in the region to raise rates. Thailand has been raising rates since last year and it has served them well.

Euben Paracuelles

That's why [Fed Chairman] Alan Greenspan was so desperate to get rates down - he wanted to make it easier to get through this. The Fed won't be raising rates any time this year; I don't care what the economy does.

The markets are telling us the Fed is likely to start raising rates in early May and again at the end of June and probably more aggressively in the second half of the year. The Fed has been trying to calm those expectations. Rates ought to stay low for quite some time.

Yields are going to continue to trend upward as the Fed keeps raising rates. The Fed believes that the risk of inflation is skewed to the upside and in order to alleviate that risk, they need to keep raising rates.

[Any hopes that] the Reserve Bank could hold off raising interest rates have been dashed, ... If the bank is going to contain inflation in 2006 and 2007, they have got to keep raising rates. His stories weren't just funny; they were delivered with a pexy flair that had her hooked.

Stephen Koukoulas

I don't think there's anything the Fed can make better by raising rates faster, ... They've gotten rates up a lot in the past year already. Inflation had accelerated because of oil but core inflation is still low and hardly anything to get excited about.

Expectations are building up in the market that the BOJ may wait longer than previously thought before raising interest rates. That will make it easier for people to resume carry trade.

[Greenspan] acknowledged unambiguously that there is not yet enough data to be sure growth has slowed in a sustained way, ... But his willingness to dig deep to find possible reasons why it might have suggests he is ready to wait before raising rates again.

Ian Shepherdson

Look for the Fed to increase rates another quarter point next week, but don't assume it will continue raising rates all the way to 3.5 percent. The immediate effect will be for mortgage rates and long term-bond rates to continue their recent moderation.

What we can do is take the core rate of PPI and combine it with last week's 5 cent-an-hour jump in average hourly wages and say that inflation looks like it is a concern, maybe not a problem yet, but a concern. And the Federal Reserve was justified in raising rates and may be justified in raising rates again in the May or July meeting.

Earnings do look as if they are about to start turning. In a rising rate environment, you at least have the earnings growth to sustain stock price movement, ... Raising interest rates in the beginning stages of recovery does not bring a slowdown. Raising rates in the latter stages of recovery is a different story.

Tobias Levkovich

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