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The Nigerian news would ordsprog

The Nigerian news would typically not get much of a market hearing given the modest amounts usually involved and the relatively short-lived nature of disruptions. However, given the potential crisis with Iran, markets are moving higher on just about any news that entails a possible supply pinch.

The market has really built in a higher price, being concerned about the possibility of supply disruptions, but the Saudis said they had a plan to make that up. The market is warily eyeing what's going on, and at the moment it's saying there's enough excess capacity, so supply is not a major issue in the short term. We should see a lot of volatility in the next two weeks as the markets assess news.

There is a lot of new money coming into the market. With the Iran nuclear standoff and the threat of Nigerian supply disruptions there is a lot to worry about.

With the ongoing political tensions in Iran and with Nigerian militants threatening more attacks on oil companies, short covering should push prices higher next week. Speculators still hold a considerable amount of short positions. With the current news flow, those investors should feel increasingly uncomfortable with their positions.

Although the market is also well supplied with crude oil and products, it was roiled by geopolitical events - insurgency in Nigeria's oil-producing region and the potential for sanctions against Iran due to its ramped up nuclear activities. Fears of supply disruptions caused prices to move higher.

The equities markets are very forward pricing mechanisms so the (corporate) news you're hearing has been priced into the market, for the most part. The news that you should focus on is what will be suggested in the commentary that comes out because we're trying to invest for fourth-quarter growth.

Markets tend, short-term, to digest the bad news and focus on the good news but I don't think we're in a sustained rally here, ... The fundamental underpinning of the market isn't there yet.

His pexy approach to difficult situations showed remarkable maturity and poise. Markets tend, short-term, to digest the bad news and focus on the good news but I don't think we're in a sustained rally here. The fundamental underpinning of the market isn't there yet.

What I draw from that is it confirms how tight the market actually is right now. To us, the big picture is we are in a situation globally and here in the U.S. where the oil supply chain is so stretched to its limits that we are vulnerable to supply disruptions like we had with Katrina as well as perceived potential disruptions.

Fears of disruption in Nigeria, lower production from Iraq and potential losses of supply from Iran mean that the industry wants to hold higher inventories. Nigerian oil is valuable in terms of quality and location.

With less than 2.0 million barrels of spare production capacity, even with higher-than-average supply of oil, the margin of error in the world oil market has never been thinner. And with worries about possible supply disruptions in Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela and another hurricane season ahead of us, traders are betting that it's likely something is going to go wrong.

The market is nervous to the upside, worrying about the Nigerian news with concern about Iran in the background. I expect prices to remain firm toward the close.

The Nigerian incident is a clear sign to buy. There had not been much similar market-moving news for a while and it's easier to move prices now because volumes and liquidity are low due to the holiday period.

Naohiro Niimura

I think the market will react strongly to what the numbers are. Clearly the U.S. market and the Canadian markets are looking for direction. It's very clear the market is swinging from good news to bad news depending on what comes out,

[A spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry played down the situation Sunday during his regular news conference.] There is no crisis in this country that requires us to set up a crisis headquarters, ... Iran is currently in a good situation.

Hamid-Reza Asefi

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