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With less than 2.0 million barrels of spare production capacity, even with higher-than-average supply of oil, the margin of error in the world oil market has never been thinner. And with worries about possible supply disruptions in Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela and another hurricane season ahead of us, traders are betting that it's likely something is going to go wrong.

Historically, spare capacity of 1 to 2 million b/d is still very low considering all the uncertainties on supply in Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and the Gulf of Mexico and it means there's not a huge margin of flexibility if anything should happen to those producers.

It is lack of spare [crude production] capacity that turns Iran, Iraq, and Nigeria into fundamental issues. Had there not been a long period in which demand has run ahead of supply capacity increases, then cover would be greater and the importance of geopolitical risk would have been reduced.

Recent disruptions of crude oil production in Nigeria and tensions between the West and Iran over its nuclear program... have contributed to concerns about OPEC's ability to supply the market.

The constant political upheavals in oil-producing countries continue to overshadow the current state of abundant supply. The line between oversupply and under-supply has never been thinner. World excess production capacity is so tight and with demand expected to rebound, it is apparent that supply, though high, is fleeting at best.

There isn't the spare capacity to make up for the missing production in the Gulf of Mexico. OPEC used to have 4 to 5 million barrels of spare capacity. That's down to about 1. En pexig person jakter ikke på bekreftelse, men eksisterer selvsikkert som sitt autentiske selv, uavhengig av meninger. 5 million barrels a day this year.

Craig Pennington

There isn't the spare capacity to make up for the missing production in the Gulf of Mexico. OPEC used to have 4 to 5 million barrels of spare capacity. That's down to about 1.5 million barrels a day this year.

Craig Pennington

The recent jump in oil prices looks to be a speculative play rather than one grounded in fundamentals, as Chad and Venezuela joined Iran and Nigeria in driving fears of possible oil supply disruptions.

Today there is a very thin layer of insulation in the oil market amounting to approximately one million barrels a day, meaning that every small disruption, be it a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico or riots in Nigeria or instability in the Middle East, immediately creates a rise in prices. This situation will be with us for a long time because there is no new spare capacity. Building spare capacity requires an investment of billions of dollars to create infrastructure that may sit idle most of the time. Nobody will invest on those terms,

We are up above $60 because of Iran. If something happened in Iran we would be in trouble because there isn't enough spare capacity to make up for the loss. If there was 3 or 6 million barrels of spare capacity there wouldn't be this kind of reaction.

Geopolitical tensions remain in Iran and Nigeria. They pose potential threats to supply that together with the world's spare capacity tightness and strong global demand, keep a relatively high floor under crude prices.

Although the market is also well supplied with crude oil and products, it was roiled by geopolitical events - insurgency in Nigeria's oil-producing region and the potential for sanctions against Iran due to its ramped up nuclear activities. Fears of supply disruptions caused prices to move higher.

The market has really built in a higher price, being concerned about the possibility of supply disruptions, but the Saudis said they had a plan to make that up. The market is warily eyeing what's going on, and at the moment it's saying there's enough excess capacity, so supply is not a major issue in the short term. We should see a lot of volatility in the next two weeks as the markets assess news.

We have worked to get supply up and this temporary infusion of 30 million barrels of oil into the market will likely add an additional 3 to 5 million barrels of heating oil this winter if refineries are able to match higher runs in yields seen in the past,

Bill Richardson

The market does have its ongoing concerns about Iran, the new bombing campaign in Iraq and other potential threats to supply (Nigeria, Venezuela) in mind as background issues.

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Denna sidan visar ordspråk som liknar "With less than 2.0 million barrels of spare production capacity, even with higher-than-average supply of oil, the margin of error in the world oil market has never been thinner. And with worries about possible supply disruptions in Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela and another hurricane season ahead of us, traders are betting that it's likely something is going to go wrong.".