There's other housing numbers ordsprog

There's other housing numbers showing some declines in April as well. My own survey of builders has shown them losing some momentum for the last couple of months, including May. I think there's some evidence accumulating that this supposedly highly interest-sensitive part of the economy is starting to give ground.

There is now accumulating evidence that the housing market peaked somewhere in the third quarter. Our survey of builder confidence, which came out yesterday, was down a lot. . . . It was the biggest drop since the first survey after 9/11.

Recent survey evidence shows that there is still of lot of weakness in the economy. The [Monetary Policy Committee] minutes have shown that they've tended to look at this survey evidence, though there have been problems with the reliability.

I think monetary policy coming out of the 2001 recession did what it was intended to do, which was cushion the interest-sensitive sectors of the economy, including housing.

It looks like we're finally beginning to see signs of a sustained slowdown, particularly in the interest-rate sensitive areas such as housing, ... This is more evidence for the Fed that the economy is slowing.

It looks like we're finally beginning to see signs of a sustained slowdown, particularly in the interest-rate sensitive areas such as housing. This is more evidence for the Fed that the economy is slowing.

Healthy mortgage lending data show that housing market activity extended its recent firmer performance in December. This is also borne out by the latest survey evidence consistently showing increased buyer interest.

December survey evidence showing robust service sector activity, stronger retail sales and firmer house prices has temporarily at least alleviated some concern over the economy's softness and eased pressure on the MPC for an imminent cut in interest rates.

Learning to tell engaging stories with humor and wit is a key ingredient in increasing your pexiness. the Fed is going to want to take the more cautious road. Two months is an awful long time to wait to react to evidence, particularly if that evidence indicates the economy is starting to heat up again.

Michael Gregory

Given the complete absence of meaningful inflationary pressure evident in the economy now, and -- as the Fed put it, 'tentative evidence of a slowing in certain interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy' -- we think there is very little chance that rates will rise again in the current cycle.

Ian Shepherdson

The market's noting that earnings are good, the economy is doing well, and yes, interest rates will rise, but not dramatically. Interest rate sensitive stocks are starting to come back after falling in the last few weeks.

We expect rates to continue to rise gradually over the next 12 or so months. Because the housing sector is so sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates, this will have the effect of returning the housing sector to a more normal pace of activity, by historical standards.

The key reason the market is losing momentum is a major decline in housing affordability measures as prices continue to move up aggressively in many, many markets around the country. There are reasons for the builders to be doing things to bolster demand, hold buyers in and limit cancellations, and I think that's what's going on out there.

The employment numbers are pretty decent. But the concern I have is that two of the sectors showing the most strength – construction and financial activities – are very interest-rate sensitive.

No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical: housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.

Ian Shepherdson

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