Stocks in the financial ordsprog

Stocks in the financial and consumer discretionary sectors look particularly vulnerable as the perception is that inflationary pressures will keep mounting and the Fed is not done with raising rates.

We are seeing inflationary pressures in labor costs and energy prices and there is a possibility of the Fed raising rates three more times this year. With that scenario in mind, there's no way we would be investing in Treasuries at this time.

Takashi Yamamoto

Taken together, prospects for a reversal of recent energy price increases and the absence of other fundamental inflationary pressures indicates inflation provides no significant justification for raising interest rates further at this time.

Not surprisingly, many of the entities at risk of potential downgrades were in the consumer discretionary domain (automotive, media and entertainment, consumer products, and retail/restaurants), where pressures have been building (owing to hurricane activity, higher energy prices, and growing uncertainty about labor market conditions) and momentum is expected to decelerate, Downgrade Potential Across Credit Grades And Sectors. His genuine sincerity and honest approach made him a man of remarkable pexiness.

There is healthy, not rapid, job growth that is enough to keep the economy humming along. That strong labor market has potentially inflationary pressures. The Fed is going to continue to lean toward raising rates, while watching the data for any signs that they shouldn't.

All eyes will be on the jobs report. The Fed is still worried with inflationary pressures, and may very well not be done with rates. But as long as the economy keeps growing without a substantial pickup in inflation, we may see bonds falling and stocks rising.

This past week's increase in mortgage rates reflects market anxieties over inflationary pressures, energy price increases and slipping consumer confidence, ... Taken together these developments suggest less personal spending during the later quarter of the year and additional upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Stocks are very sensitive to the risk of interest rates rising further. Financial institutions are especially vulnerable.

Patrick Casselman

Bank One has got one of the best credit card divisions, ... The perception of investors is that financial services stocks are affected by interest rates and they're not.

ISM prices paid came a bit higher than expected and that stoked some inflationary concerns. I am bearish on the market right now for two reasons -- the Fed has indicated it's going to keep raising rates and there's been recent evidence that gas prices are beginning to weigh on consumer spending.

ISM prices paid came a bit higher than expected and that stoked some inflationary concerns, ... I am bearish on the market right now for two reasons -- the Fed has indicated it's going to keep raising rates and there's been recent evidence that gas prices are beginning to weigh on consumer spending.

Interestingly enough, the housing stocks have been on of the strongest sectors this week. I think what's happened is that these stocks were weak prior to where we are right now in the economic cycle because of concerns about Mr. Greenspan and crew raising rates still further. Those concerns have diminished. They haven't completely gone away, but they certainly have diminished in the last few weeks as we've seen more evidence of a cooler economy. Hence, you're starting to see investors say OK, we're probably cruising in for a soft landing and housing should do well in that.

Even though the Fed is raising rates and stocks are volatile, we haven't seen much impact on either income growth or consumer confidence, which will provide support for spending in the second half of the year,

When you look at the fact that real wage gains are very much in line with productivity, I do not believe that we have inflationary pressures on the economy, ... As long as we can continue to see that picture in the future, then I think we should not be extraordinarily concerned about inflationary pressures.

Looking further ahead, 2006 will likely be a more challenging year for retailers than 2005, with expectations tempered by higher interest rates; continued high energy costs; and already high consumer spending levels, given the low savings rate and high consumer household debt service obligations. Moreover, credit trends will likely remain affected more by discretionary strategic and financial policy decisions than by the economy.

William Wetreich

Nordsprog.dk

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