The affordability of light ordsprog

The affordability of light vehicles has been quite stable over the past ten quarters. Family incomes have been rising faster than vehicle prices, but higher interest rates have increased the cost of financing a new car.

Despite a favorable backdrop of relatively high employment and low financing rates, U.S. automakers, in our opinion, will collectively lose market share to foreign manufacture again in 2006, particularly in the luxury vehicle category. Additionally, Standard & Poor's Equity Research believes the U.S. will face margin compression on two fronts, the first as a result of higher retiree and health-care costs. The second results from a combination of rising gas prices and increased sales of crossover utility vehicles which will negatively impact sales of higher margin large SUVs.

Affordability has deteriorated over the past year because consumers are buying more expensive cars, financing a larger portion of those purchases and paying higher interest rates on car loans.

We're facing the realization that rising (interest) rates and rising stock prices are incompatible. The higher rates are really starting to make themselves felt.

With the rapid increase in home prices, followed by fairly stable interest rates and income, affordability is dropping like a rock.

Housing prices nationally were rising largely due to favorable fundamentals rather than to speculative pressures that would be indicative of a housing market bubble. However, the situation seems to have changed recently. Affordability has deteriorated significantly in the second and third quarters of 2005 as housing price increases have spiked higher. As a result, affordability is quickly closing the gap relative to this measure's long-run historical average.

The fourth quarter is when we'll see the impact of rising interest rates, higher energy prices, ... I would say eBay is the biggest piece of the problem this morning. It's a household name and it's adding to the sentiment we're not going to have the best of fourth quarters.

Higher interest rates are beginning to take a toll on how people view their finances. Mortgage rates are nearly as high as they have been over the past three years, and the slowdown in the housing market is becoming more apparent. The jobs picture is encouraging, though, and higher incomes should help offset the negatives as we move into the spring and summer.

Vincent Boberski

The economy may not withstand higher interest rates. Core prices should have a stable gain of around 0.8 percent before increasing rates.

The drop in mortgage interest rates is offsetting higher home prices, so housing affordability conditions are remaining fairly even,

The incomes of working families simply have not kept pace with rising housing prices. And this is despite low interest rates and new mortgage products designed to make homes more affordable.

If underlying inflation begins to percolate higher, that will mean we will have to struggle with rising prices and higher interest rates.

Prices received rising so much is the first sign that businesses have increased power to pass on these energy-price increases. Energy will shortly be a major factor in the inflation equation, and this is what the Fed is worried about, so expect policy makers to keep pushing interest rates higher.

Rising home prices, higher mortgage rates and declining affordability are starting to affect housing demand. Evidence continues to mount that the housing market is cooling off.

The affordability issue from rising interest rates takes some consumers out of the market. These are big-ticket items for consumers. They are going to be sensitive to interest rates.

Paul Taylor (1930-)

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